Even a missile launch failure shows North Korean problem

Even a missile launch failure shows North Korean problem

North Korea told its people that the launch Sunday of a three-stage, long-range rocket was a glorious success that propelled the satellite into orbit. Meanwhile, Western military analysts were left to ponder whether the launch, which ended with the rocket crashing into the Pacific Ocean, was either a failed space launch or the successful test of a long-range missile that would be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead — and someday carrying it beyond its 1,900-mile weekend flight.

In the spotlight

The only thing that is sure is that North Korea, a country unable to feed its own people, was once again able to attract attention beyond that deserved by a dysfunctional nation-state. If it were not for its erratic leader, Kim Jong Il, its possession of nuclear weapons and its willingness to sell its technology to other international malcontents, North Korea would be little more than an object of pity. Its people survive on scraps while Kim pours the national treasury into building an army and pursuing weapons of mass destruction. Meanwhile, South Korea prospers in ways that can only be imagined north of the 38th parallel.

In a more perfect world — or at least in a functional United Nations Security Council — North Korea would be worried now about the consequence of its bellicose display. But China continues to mollycoddle Kim and would veto any resolution that had any real teeth to it. So, once again Kim will be shielded from the consequences of his bad behavior.

Carrots and sticks

The Clinton administration tried bribing Kim, the Bush administration tried first to isolate, and then to bribe, both with unsatisfactory results. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton pulled out the rhetorical guns Sunday, but the fact of the matter is that President Barack Obama will have to work with China, Japan, Russia and South Korea to try to rein in Kim.

In truth, as long as he’s in power North Korea will be antagonistic and unpredictable. The best that can be hoped for is a good Western intelligence network that can keep track of Kim’s nuclear arsenal and technology.

Kim, 67, is widely assumed to have suffered a stroke, which, of course, his regime has not acknowledged. His eventual passing, however, offers no great consolation because the end of a family-run dictatorship presents the possibility of a power struggle with frightening implications. A new regime might be even more tempted to prove its relevance than Kim has been.