Pieces of puzzle there if Wedge can fit them


By SHELDON OCKER

A lot of things don’t matter in spring training. But you can never be sure which ones.

In his final two Arizona starts, Scott Lewis gave up six home runs in 6 2/3 innings; Carl Pavano allowed one earned run in 6 2/3 innings in his last outing, and Cliff Lee compiled a 12.42 ERA in five starts. (Did he hurt his back lugging around the 2008 Cy Young Award?)

A month from now, when the Indians begin putting the fear into their American League Central Division rivals, nobody will care or remember what these pitchers did in meaningless exhibition games.

If they put the fear into their division lodge brothers, maybe the performances that seemed so ephemeral in training camp will take on special meaning during the regular season. It’s not always easy to separate reality from fantasy.

All winter and into the spring, General Manager Mark Shapiro talked about the rotation being the most fragile piece of the puzzle. Manager Eric Wedge would occasionally deliver a throwaway line to the media — making adjustments going forward, were his words -- indicating uncertainty about his starters.

If only CC Sabathia were still around. Think of it: a rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Fausto Carmona, Anthony Reyes and Scott Lewis. Shapiro never would have signed Pavano had Sabathia still been on the roster.

Of course, Sabathia is long gone. The $161 million that he will be paid by the New York Yankees in the next seven years is twice as much as the Indians will spend on salaries in 2009.

So it was back to the drawing board for Shapiro. Like most GMs, before Shapiro charts out any moves on his drawing board, he sketches in a hand with two fingers crossed.

In case the point isn’t clear, if the Indians have a fatal weakness at the outset of the season, it is the insecurity created by a rotation with lots of question marks.

Pavano has made 26 starts the past four years, having been in and out of training rooms and hospital recovery rooms. Reyes has had periodic problems keeping his right elbow from hurting. Lewis has a total of four major-league starts on his resume, hardly a track record on which Wedge and Shapiro can rely.

Even Carmona, a pitcher who should register his sinker as a lethal weapon, became a mediocre performer last year after winning 19 games the previous season.

Then there is Lee, whose spectacular 22-3 record in 2008 was such an anomaly that the assumption is he can’t possibly pitch as effectively this season. In other words, the only thing that Shapiro and Wedge know for sure (or as sure as anything can be in baseball) is that the ace of the staff will take an inevitable step backward.

Yet this team is regarded as a prime contender for a division championship. That is partly because of Lee and Carmona, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta. Yes, Jhonny Peralta, who is more highly regarded outside of Northeast Ohio than he is by the hometown fans.

Even the rotation has a couple of silver linings. Pavano might get through the season without so much as a twinge in his big toe. It has been reported that Reyes is as strong as a horse and might stay that way. And just because Lewis has almost no major-league experience doesn’t mean he can’t pitch.

Carmona is still learning to be a big-league winner. Superior talent is almost never enough. It takes four or five years for most starters to overcome all the obstacles they will encounter and learn all of the coping mechanisms needed to remain sound of mind. Just think back to Sabathia’s development, which took longer than most observers predicted. Moreover, maybe Lee will defy the odds. He probably won’t go 22-3. How about 20-6? Would that be such a tragedy? Undoubtedly, Shapiro and Wedge would find a way to live with that.

They also have planned ahead. They know very well the unlikelihood of going through a season with only five starters. Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and phenom David Huff will be laboring in the minors (and competing with one another, which never hurts), waiting for a chance to earn their stripes in the big leagues. Sowers and Laffey have had a measure of success with the Indians, also their share of failure, but keep in mind that they, too, are still feeling their way.

It is not a stretch to believe one of these three starters can deliver wins at the big-league level. Moreover, sometime around midseason, Jake Westbrook will be fully recovered from elbow reconstruction surgery and regain his proper place in the rotation.

The AL Central Division is such a jumble of evenly matched teams with major uncertainties, almost any club can win. That includes the Indians. If they can eke out 89 wins or so, they can prevail. I say the odds are in their favor.

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