Republicans bracing for political thrashing

By David Skolnick

If you want to know how bad it’s going to be for Republicans this year just look a little east and a little west.

Just west of the Mahoning Valley is Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, which takes in all of Stark and Wayne counties, and portions of Medina and Ashland counties.

U.S. Rep. Ralph Regula, a Republican from Navarre, has served as the district’s representative in the U.S. House since January 1973.

While Regula always had little trouble winning re-election, he was going to have the fight of his life in this election.

State Sen. John Boccieri, D-33rd, an Air Force Reserves pilot and skilled politician, was recruited to run against Regula.

Rather than seek re-election, Regula opted to retire.

Boccieri easily won the Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, state Sen. Kirk Schuring, R-29th, had a bit of a fight to win his party’s nomination.

This shouldn’t even be a race.

Republicans have controlled this district for about 50 years.

Yet the reality is Boccieri is probably going to capture the seat and it might not even be that close of a race.

Schuring is from Jackson Township, near Canton, in the heart of the congressional district. He’s represented Stark County, the largest county in the district, for 15 years in the state Legislature.

Boccieri has represented a small portion of the district during his eight years in the Legislature. He recently moved from New Middletown in Mahoning County to Alliance in Stark County.

Schuring and his supporters made a big deal that Boccieri didn’t live in the district.

It’s probably a good idea to live in your congressional district, but Boccieri would hardly be the first to not do so.

U.S. Rep. Charlie Wilson of St. Clairsville, D-6th, doesn’t live in his congressional district.

Dennis Spisak, Wilson’s Green Party opponent, lives in Struthers, a city not in the 6th District.

There have been a number of congressional candidates in recent years who’ve run in districts in which they don’t live.

Schuring has used Boccieri’s place of residence as one of his main campaign issues.

The most pathetic effort is Schuring’s campaign strategy to link Boccieri to Youngstown.

In e-mails to supporters, Schuring’s campaign calls Boccieri a “Youngstown politician” and accuses him of using “Youngstown tactics.” I guess the implication is Boccieri, who represents Youngstown in the state Senate but lived 14 miles from the city, must be corrupt. After all, he’s from Youngstown — although he isn’t.

The tactic doesn’t seem to work as Boccieri continues to raise more money than Schuring and hold a lead over the Republican in most polls.

One indication the race is over: the National Republican Congressional Committee isn’t spending money on this race. Even Schuring’s own party realizes he won’t win in a longtime Republican congressional district.

Just east of the Mahoning Valley is Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District. The heart of the district is Erie County, but it also includes a portion of Mercer County.

U.S. Rep. Phil English, an Erie Republican, has represented the area since 1995. On economic and social issues, he’s about as moderate as a Republican can be. He’s represented the district with distinction. He’s stood up to his party on steel tariffs and an increase in the minimum wage.

And he’s likely to lose the race to Kathy Dahlkemper, a Democratic businesswoman running for office for the first time.

Polls taken of voters in the district show English falling further and further behind in a race that just two months ago was viewed as a relatively easy win for the Republican.

Republicans say the reason Democrats will win these two seats and others is backlash from voters angry at what President Bush has done during his administration.

These two races are snapshots of what’s happening nationwide. Longtime Republican districts and members of Congress are no longer safe.

U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Niles, D-17th, who’s campaigned for Boccieri and Dahlkemper, expects 20 to 25 Republican seats in the U.S. House to go Democratic in the Nov. 4 election.

It looks like maybe Ryan is being a little conservative with that projection.