Defense may be key to survival for Hopkins

By Joe Scalzo

Kelly Pavlik must be careful not to alter his game plan in favor of the knockout, Ray Mancini says.

It’s a safe bet that HBO pay-per-view won’t be using Ray “Boom Boom” Mancini to promote Saturday’s bout between Kelly Pavlik and Bernard Hopkins.

“I think it’s gonna be an ugly stinking fight,” said Mancini, who spoke by phone Wednesday. “When Hopkins wins, he wins ugly. And when he loses, he loses ugly.

“With him, it’s always an ugly fight.”

The fight has been billed “Unstoppable,” since neither the 26-year-old Pavlik (34-0, 30 KOs) nor the 43-year-old Hopkins (48-5-1) has been knocked out.

That probably won’t change, Mancini said.

“If Bernard don’t want to get knocked out, he ain’t gonna get knocked out,” said Mancini, a former WBA lightweight champion out of Youngstown. “Bernard ain’t no dummy. He’s not going to take on a young tiger if he thinks he’s going to get hurt.

“If he doesn’t think he can win the fight, he’ll make sure it goes the distance.”

The key for Pavlik is patience, Mancini said. Pavlik can’t get caught up in looking for the knockout if the opportunity isn’t there, particularly in the later rounds when the crowd starts getting anxious. Pavlik needs to work his jab and hit Hopkins in the body and on the shoulders, since the head won’t be much of a target.

“If Kelly starts worrying about looking for the knockout or trying to please the crowd, Bernard’s going to say, ‘Ah, now I got you where I want you,’ ” said Mancini. “The more frustrated you get, the more you leave yourself open for that big shot. And Bernard is a very strong counter-puncher.”

He’s also the master of the dirty tricks. Hopkins prefers to fight inside — something Gary Lockett wasn’t able to do against Pavlik, which is why he took a knee three times in three rounds — and he’ll use every method available to get under Pavlik’s skin.

“With Hopkins, it’s all elbows and knees,” Mancini said. “That’s all he shows you.

“You’re going to get marked up. He knows how to fight inside.”

Mancini, by the way, thinks Pavlik will win the fight unless he gets sloppy. But he’s worried a bout with Hopkins is a lose-lose proposition. If Pavlik wins, critics will say he only beat a 43-year-old man. And if he loses, they say he lost to a 43-year-old man. Mancini compared it to when he was 22 and fought a 33-year-old Bobby Chacon. Mancini won by third-round KO, but people shrugged and said, “Well, that’s what he was supposed to do.”

“This fight won’t help Kelly’s stock much,” said Mancini. “Sometimes you’re better off taking the small purse and the easier fight.”

Although Mancini’s style is similar to Pavlik’s — lots of punches, excitement and knockouts — he appreciates Hopkins’ contribution to the sport. But Hopkins’ best days are behind him, Mancini said.

“He had exciting fights up to a couple years ago,” said Mancini. “He used to fight you, but you don’t see him fight anymore. He doesn’t want to offer.

“He is deceptive, but I never heard of any fighter who ever won a championship on defense. You have to punch to win. It’s called offense.”

Mancini will miss Saturday’s fight — he’s attending the National Italian American Federation gala in Washington D.C. — but he’s going to have his cell phone close by to await the results.

“It’s unfortunate it’s the same night or else I’d be there,” he said. “I’m anxious to hear what happens.”

scalzo@vindy.com