Why has Clinton steered clear of Valley?

By David Skolnick

If Mahoning Valley Democrats had their way, Hillary Rodham Clinton would be the Democratic presidential nominee.

The results of the March primary between Clinton and Barack Obama tell that story.

Obama, the party’s presidential nominee, lost the Ohio primary to Clinton, getting completely crushed in the Mahoning Valley.

Obama received only 31 percent of the Democratic primary vote against Clinton in Trumbull County. He received 35 percent of the primary vote in Mahoning County.

Don’t forget Columbiana County, where Obama received 27 percent of the vote.

Mahoning and Trumbull are two of the most Democratic counties in the state. Columbiana is a split county and doesn’t have the population of Mahoning or Trumbull.

Conventional wisdom is if a Republican receives at least 40 percent of the vote in Mahoning and Trumbull, he/she wins Ohio. Sometimes it doesn’t have to be even that high. Republican George W. Bush received 36 percent and 37 percent of the vote in those two counties in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and won close races against his Democratic opponents.

The Obama campaign realizes the importance of winning Ohio in order for him to be elected president. They also know Obama must do well in the Valley in the general election to capture this battleground state.

So, where the hell is Clinton and why isn’t she campaigning in the Valley for Obama?

Clinton and her husband, Bill, the former president, have campaigned in Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire on behalf of Obama.

The two will be in Scranton, Pa., on Sunday with Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, for a rally in a swing-state as important as Ohio.

But with less than a month before the Nov. 4 election — and it’s important to not forget that because of early voting some Ohioans have already cast their ballots and others will do so before Election Day — Hillary’s campaigned in Ohio for Obama only once. That was last month with stops in Lorain and Akron.

It would make a skeptic think that the Clintons don’t want to campaign for Obama.

Obama’s campaign says that’s not the case.

“We expect to have Sen. Clinton back in the state in the very near future and we hope to send her to the Mahoning Valley as well as other places,” said Isaac Baker, an Obama spokesman.

While nothing’s on the schedule, sources say Clinton will campaign for Obama in the Valley as early as next week.

She should have already been here, with next week being a return visit to reinforce with her supporters that they should vote for Obama.

There are Clinton supporters who are either voting for John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, or are undecided. I don’t how many there are, but it’s obvious the McCain campaign believes there are enough in this area. It’s one of the main reasons he’s campaigned three times in the Valley since the primary.

I don’t think the Obama campaign needed a wake-up call about this. But the Sept. 16 rally featuring McCain and Sarah Palin, his Republican vice presidential running mate, at the Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport that attracted about 7,000 people should concern the Obama campaign.

Polls show the presidential election in Ohio is too close to call.

The Obama campaign has been very active in Ohio. Obama is in the state often. He’s in Chillicothe and Columbus today and spent Thursday in Dayton, Cincinnati and Portsmouth.

It’s very likely he and Biden will return to the Valley.

Gov. Ted Strickland, who’s very popular here, has made a number of appearances in the Valley for Obama.

But for some — and every vote is important in such a tight race — they won’t be satisfied until they hear with their own ears Clinton urging them to vote for Obama.