Pressure is on McCain to turn the race around

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Sen. and Republican Presidential Nominee John McCain

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Sen. and Democratic Presidential Nominee Barack Obama

Both sides concede a lot can happen in the last month of the campaign.

WASHINGTON (AP) — One month before Election Day, Barack Obama sits atop battleground polls in a shrinking playing field, the economic crisis is breaking his way and the Democrat has made progress toward winning the White House.

The onus is on Republican John McCain to turn the race around under exceptionally challenging circumstances — and his options are limited.

McCain’s advisers say the Arizona senator will ramp up his attacks in the coming days with a tougher, more-focused message describing “who Obama is,” including questioning his character, “liberal” record and “too risky” proposals in advertising and appearances.

Obama’s advisers, in turn, say he will argue that McCain is unable to articulate an economic vision that’s different from President Bush’s. In a new push, the Illinois senator is calling McCain’s health-care plan “radical.”

Now that the vice-presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin is over, the contest returns to being entirely about Obama and McCain and likely will stay that way until Nov. 4. The rivals meet Tuesday in their second of three debates as the campaign enters its next unpredictable chapter.

Interviews with party insiders across the country Friday showed this: Democrats are optimistic of victory if nervous over whether Obama can hold his advantage, while Republicans are worried that the race may be moving out of reach though hopeful that McCain will beat the odds as he did in the GOP primary.

Both sides note that plenty can change in one month — and they’re right.

“Very confident, yet not overly so,” said Ohio Democratic Party chief Chris Redfern, who said the financial turmoil is dreadful for the country but “politically it’s advantageous” for Obama.

South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson said that given McCain’s standing, “I’d be concerned at this time, but I would never count this guy out. He’s got the political hide of an alligator.”

The Electoral College battle playing out over roughly a dozen states puts McCain’s challenge to reach the necessary 270 votes in stark terms.

McCain can’t prevail without holding onto most of the states that Bush won, and he’s now virtually tied or trailing in public polls in at least 10 of them — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — as he tries to fend off Obama’s well-funded advertising onslaught and grass-roots efforts.

The GOP nominee also is only playing in five states that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004 — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and, now, Maine — and he’s running behind. McCain abandoned efforts Thursday in one other, costly 17-vote Michigan, as Obama approaches a double-digit lead in the high-unemployment state and it became clear McCain couldn’t shake Bush’s drag.

Some Republicans close to McCain’s campaign fret in private that Obama may be pulling away for good; others aren’t so pessimistic. But there’s unanimity in this; McCain has dwindling chances to regain momentum in the face of stiff headwinds, and the upcoming debates are critical.

“He needs to be able to speak to his strengths and remind people of why they like him,” said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire delegate to the Republican National Convention. Florida GOP Chairman Jim Greer said McCain must clearly “distinguish between the two approaches to governing.”

Obama, to be sure, still has work to do to lock down his lead. His advantage easily could disappear if he stumbles — or if an adverse outside event, a so-called “October surprise,” occurs.