Will ‘Twilight’ bring dawn or dusk to movie season?

By RUSS BRIT

The teen vampire movie is a surefire hit in a season of unknown quantities.

LOS ANGELES — It seems like a lot to ask, but the fate of the entire holiday movie season that begins this weekend may hinge on whether one film can live up to its pre-release hype: “Twilight.”

It’s a movie that many may not have heard of, from a studio that is probably more of an unknown quantity: Summit Entertainment. It has big shoes to fill as it’s standing in for an installment of the powerhouse “Harry Potter” franchise, which was postponed until next summer. And it’s a microcosm of what’s ahead for the industry this holiday season as few proven franchises are hitting screens this year.

Anyone with a teenager who’s been dragged to a midnight release of any of the books in the “Twilight” series by author Stephenie Meyer already knows the film is bound for a big opening weekend when it debuts Nov. 21. Midnight screenings are planned at at least one Mahoning Valley multiplex next Friday.

Whether it can keep the industry on its near-record pace in domestic receipts could be another story, depending on how long the film’s appeal lasts. Now that “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” won’t hit theaters until July, there are mostly unknown quantities this holiday season.

“It looks like a quiet holiday season,” said Brandon Gray, president of BoxOfficeMojo.com. “I wish it were a bit more exciting but hopefully there’ll be some surprise successes.”

While there are two better-known films preceding “Twilight” — DreamWorks Animation’s “Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa” and the latest James Bond film from Sony Corp., “Quantum of Solace” — there are mostly unknown quantities until year’s end.

That means if “Twilight” can draw audiences into theaters well into December, it could bode well for some of the other movies expected to make their way on to the big screen between Thanksgiving and New Year’s.

So far, the signs are good. Close to 100 show times on the day of “Twilight’s” debut are sold out, according to online ticket seller Fandango Inc. It already comprises 63 percent of the broker’s sales, already outdistancing both “Madagascar” and “Quantum.”

“I think ’Twilight’ is going to be a big, big hit,” said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Media By Numbers.

If so, it could not only lift the fortunes of holiday box office in a foundering economy, it might elevate Summit into a formidable player among Hollywood studios.

Summit has been in the business for more than a decade, usually handling foreign sales of such films as “The Blair Witch Project,” “American Pie” and 2006 Academy Award nominee, “Babel.” It also helped produce “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” “Insomnia” and “Memento.”

It also distributed films internationally, but earlier this year it dipped into the waters of the U.S. market by setting up a domestic distribution arm.

“Twilight” is, by far, Summit’s biggest release and could end up being the franchise upon which it builds its future. Meyer has written three other books for Little, Brown Book Group in the series — “New Moon,” “Eclipse” and “Breaking Dawn.”

“Breaking Dawn” was released in August in the same vein as the “Potter” books, with midnight unveilings at Borders, Barnes and Noble and other outlets. It sold 1.3 million copies its first day. Summit has secured deals for “New Moon” and “Eclipse,” and is closing in on a deal for “Breaking Dawn.”

“Twilight” originally was scheduled to be released in December, but moved up to the prime spot of the weekend before Thanksgiving. That opportunity came when Warner Bros. moved “Potter” to July as a sparse amount of product was scheduled for release at that time.

Now, it’s scheduled to open in 3,000 theaters, with a handful of those debuting “Twilight” at midnight Nov. 20.

“They’re getting a lot of traction off the marketing of that movie,” said Media By Numbers’ Dergarabedian.