Cities, suburbs in the Valley give Obama stunning support

By David Skolnick

YOUNGSTOWN — Some of the numbers are absolutely startling.

In Youngstown’s 1st Ward, Precinct B, Democrat Barack Obama received 436 votes compared to just 3 for Republican John McCain. Even Ralph Nader, an independent who received less than 1 percent of the vote in Ohio, beat McCain in the precinct, receiving 4 votes.

In the city’s 2nd Ward, Precinct H, Obama received 280 votes compared with 2 for McCain. Nader picked up 2 votes in that precinct.

In Warren’s 6th Ward, Precinct B, Obama beat McCain 431 to 2.

But it wasn’t just the predominately black sections of Youngstown and Warren that saw Obama crush McCain at the polls, according to unofficial vote totals from the presidential election.

Obama beat McCain in all 77 precincts in Youngstown as well as all 43 precincts in Austintown, Campbell’s 11 precincts, Struthers’ 15 precincts and all but two of Boardman’s 51 precincts.

Except for Boardman, very few of the totals in the other communities could be considered competitive.

In Austintown’s Precinct 32, Obama won 248 to 98. In Campbell’s 1st Ward, Precinct B, Obama won 180 to 24.

It wasn’t much better for McCain in Trumbull County.

Obama won every precinct in Niles, Girard, Hubbard city and township, Weathersfield, McDonald, Lordstown and Newton Falls. He also won all but one of Warren’s 58 voting precincts, and all but one of Liberty’s 18 precincts.

Yet Obama’s vote percentages in the Democratic-controlled Mahoning and Trumbull counties were less than those of John Kerry, the failed 2004 Democratic presidential nominee.

In Mahoning County, Obama received 61.7 percent of the vote to 35.8 percent for McCain.

In 2004, Kerry received 62.4 percent of the Mahoning vote; President George W. Bush, a Republican, received 36.7 percent.

In Trumbull County, Obama received 59.6 percent of the vote to 37.6 percent for McCain.

In 2004, Kerry had 61.6 percent of the Trumbull vote to 37.9 percent for Bush.

Obama’s total in Trumbull is 0.4 of a percent lower than 60 percent, the minimum number political experts say is needed from both that county and Mahoning for a Democrat to have a fighting chance to win the presidency in Ohio.

It turns out Obama didn’t need it as he won the state with 51.1 percent of the vote to 47.3 percent for McCain.

“If those two counties are below 60 percent, the Democrat is in trouble,” said William Binning, the retired chairman of the Youngstown State University political science department and a former Mahoning County Republican Party chairman. “Mahoning and Trumbull barely did their job.”

The fact that Obama didn’t do as well in Mahoning and Trumbull counties as Kerry in 2004 doesn’t detract from the importance of those two counties in winning Ohio, said Paul Sracic, YSU’s political science department chairman.

“A Democrat can’t win an election without winning this area,” he said. “You have to win here.”

As he did in many states, Obama fared well in suburbs such as Austintown and Boardman, where those who used to live in cities such as Youngstown now reside, Sracic said.

That was the key to Obama’s victory, Sracic said.

“Those are swing areas that were once Republican territory,” he said.

State Rep. Robert F. Hagan of Youngstown, D-60th, an Obama supporter, said he wanted the two counties to hit at least 65 percent for Obama.

“We did as much as we could to do,” he said. “I wish we would have been able to get higher numbers and tell the state and national parties that we delivered. It would have been a real boost for us. It’s still a good showing. It still remains a strong Democratic area. The candidates come here because the votes are here.”

Many traditional Republican strongholds voted for McCain, but the number of voters in those communities are significantly smaller than the two counties’ core cities.

Communities voting for McCain include Canfield as well as rural areas such as Beaver, Goshen, Green, Smith and Beloit in Mahoning County and Bloomfield, Champion, West Farmington, Greene, Gustavus and Orangeville in Trumbull.

But in Poland, which Binning says has “hardcore Republican precincts,” Obama narrowly defeated McCain. Obama won nine of the township’s 16 precincts, beating McCain by 192 votes. The candidates split the village’s four precincts, with McCain having a 22-vote edge.

Obama also had a lower voting percentage in Columbiana County than Kerry in 2004. Both Democrats lost that county.

Obama captured 44.8 percent of Columbiana County’s vote to 52.6 percent for McCain.

In 2004, Kerry won 47.3 percent of the county’s vote to 52.1 percent for Bush.

The heavily Democrat southern portion of Columbiana County was almost all for Obama.

Eleven of 12 precincts in East Liverpool, and all five precincts in Wellsville went for Obama.

In Lisbon, votes were almost evenly split. Of the three village precincts, McCain won one by five votes, lost another by one vote and there was a tie in the third precinct. In the northern part of the county, three of East Palestine’s four precincts went for Obama. Columbiana had five precincts for McCain and one for Obama.

In Salem, six precincts went to Obama and seven to McCain.

Support for McCain differed outside of municipalities.

In Butler Township’s South Precinct, outside Salem, McCain received 436 votes — the apparent largest precinct vote for him — as compared to 162 for Obama. But in rural Yellow Creek Township East, outside of Wellsville, Obama had 361 votes to McCain’s 340 votes.

All of Columbiana County’s precinct numbers could change slightly because not all of the absentee ballots were included in the precinct breakdown, although they were included in the county total.

Also, provisional votes — cast by people who moved into or within a county shortly before the election — have not been counted in any of Ohio’s counties, but those votes aren’t expected to change the outcome.

Though Obama didn’t do better than Kerry in the Mahoning Valley, the Democrat won six counties in Ohio that went for Bush in 2004, most notably Hamilton County (Cincinnati). Also, McCain received about 45,000 fewer votes in Franklin County (Columbus) than Bush in 2004, and about 25,000 fewer votes in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) than Bush.

On the flip side, McCain didn’t capture any county won by Kerry in 2004.

XFor a complete precinct-by-precinct breakdown in the tri-county area, see Vindy.com. XContributor: D.A. Wilkinson, Vindicator Salem Bureau

skolnick@vindy.com