Modest win would be best for Obama

Here are two scenarios of what could happen if the polls are right and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama wins today and becomes the 44th president of the United States. You choose which is the most likely one.

The optimistic scenario: After receiving a congratulatory phone call from his Republican rival, Sen. John McCain, in the early hours of Wednesday, Obama appears on national television surrounded by a dream team of economic and political superstars.

With billionaire Warren Buffett, former Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker, former Treasury Secretaries Bob Rubin and Larry Summers, and former Secretary of State Colin Powell standing behind him, Obama makes an ultra-conciliatory victory speech. A calm and confident-looking Obama says his administration will bring about “a real and lasting change,” adding that he will enlist prominent Republicans because “America is facing a monumental economic crisis that will demand a monumental unity effort.”

A new wind of optimism immediately grips the country, and the world. The election of the first black president in U.S. history is seen as evidence that the American dream is still alive. U.S. foreign policy experts predict an international diplomatic honeymoon: It will be hard for Islamic or Latin American countries to accuse Obama of being an imperialist exploiter of the developing world, they say.

Appointments

As the week progresses, optimism reaches new highs following press reports that Obama is likely to appoint Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., as secretary of state, or Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., as secretary of defense.

Obama transition team sources are quoted as saying that if Obama picks Hagel, he will most likely appoint New Mexico governor and former ambassador to the United Nations Bill Richardson as secretary of state, which would make him the first U.S. Hispanic to hold that job. In Latin America, leaders are excited to have a fluent Spanish-speaker who feels at home in the region as the top U.S. diplomat.

Obama’s signals boost U.S. consumer confidence. The stock market begins to inch its way up on expectations of greater corporate profits. A hopeful America looks forward to emerging from the economic crisis at home and recovering its battered image abroad.

The pessimistic scenario: Obama wins by a landslide on Tuesday, and his Democratic Party obtains a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in the Senate that will allow Democrats to control the legislative agenda at their will.

Corporate tax bills

Corporate America is terrified. Business leaders fear that the left wing of the Democratic Party will be in control, passing higher-than-expected corporate tax bills, an anti-free-trade agenda and new “card check” laws that would eliminate secret ballots in union organizing drives, giving new power to big labor unions.

For the first time in decades, there is no system of checks and balances in the U.S. government, Wall Street analysts say.

Generalized fear of an anti-business congressional agenda and a potentially inflationary boost in public spending to pay for Obama’s social programs leads the stock market to new lows. U.S. companies announce new mass layoffs, consumer spending falls dramatically and the economy descends from a recession into a near depression.

My opinion: If Obama wins, much of his success will depend on by what margin he wins.

If it’s a comfortable but not overwhelming victory — say the Democrats win a 56-seat majority in the Senate, but don’t reach the almighty 60-seat figure — we are likely to see the optimistic scenario. If it’s a blanket victory with a filibuster-proof Democratic Senate majority, there will be more room for the pessimistic scenario.

Despite all the bickering and gridlock in Washington, the United States tends to work best when its presidents face opposition in Congress, and an Obama administration would be no exception.

X Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.