History shows not to count McCain out

By Arthur I. Cyr

“A working majority for change,” has become a standard stump statement by Barack Obama, reassuring and pragmatic while attacking the status quo of George W. Bush. Opinion polls show the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden has a substantial continuing lead, though with notably varying percentages.

Can the Republicans still win? To quote GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, “You betcha.”

American voters do not usually shift decisively just before an election but have done so occasionally. The most dramatic recent example is from the 1980 presidential election. The only debate between incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter and Republican challenger Ronald Reagan was held a little more than a week before voting.

Reagan’s television performance skillfully demolished Carter campaign attacks that he was too old and too extreme to occupy the White House. In the few days of campaigning left, Reagan surged from behind and won the popular vote by a decisive 10-point margin.

In 1968, the Democratic nominee, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, eliminated a 12-point gap in early October to a very narrow election loss to Republican Richard Nixon. Humphrey accomplished this despite association with very unpopular President Lyndon Johnson, a tumultuous violent year, and a party bitterly divided over the Vietnam War.

In a less dramatic example, Democratic nominee Al Gore in 2000 was trailing by 7 percent 10 days before the election. He erased this and in fact finished ahead of Republican George W. Bush in the popular vote, though he lost the White House in the Electoral College when the U.S. Supreme Court awarded the contested state of Florida to his opponent.

Reagan’s White House election victory also reflected differing motivation among voters. Especially when combined with a last minute opinion shift, this can produce stunning upsets. In 1948, polls and politicians generally assumed that beleaguered Democratic President Harry S. Truman would lose to the Republican ticket headed by Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Truman’s stunning victory is symbolized by the famous photograph of him holding a copy of the staunchly conservative Republican newspaper The Chicago Tribune. The huge headline declared “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

Studies by Samuel Lubell and other opinion experts are persuasive that a late shift to Truman was greatly reinforced by complacency in the Republican rank and file. A Dewey victory was widely viewed as in the bag. Also, Dewey’s extremely bland public style — he was once described as looking like the plastic groom on topic of wedding cake — further dampened turnout.

Nonstop campaigning

Meanwhile, Truman’s ferocious non-stop campaigning drew attention, accumulated respect and ultimately led to victory. The president also was effective in placing public blame for the economic problems of that time on a Republican “Do Nothing” Congress. That appeal was particularly persuasive with hard-pressed midwestern farmers otherwise inclined to vote Republican.

Another factor that may affect the outcome of this election is the so-called “Bradley Effect.” In 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, was defeated for governor of California even though polls showed him winning.

This and other examples argue some voters are more included in opinion polls than in the voting booth to support a minority candidate.

The 2008 presidential campaign has been remarkably free of appeals to racism, despite personal attacks by both sides. The fact that a major party ticket is headed by an African-American is enormously important -- and positive. A Democratic victory, however, won’t be guaranteed until demonstrated by the electorate.

X Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College in Wisconsin. Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service.