Analyst: Cobalt to go to Mexico

By Don Shilling

The Lordstown GM complex will make the new Chevy Aveo, not a new version of the Cobalt, the auto industry analyst said.

LORDSTOWN — Two reports say a new version of the Chevrolet Cobalt is slated for launch next year at the Lordstown car plant, but an industry analyst still thinks the car is headed to Mexico.

Motor Trend and Leftlane, two automotive news organizations, posted online reports with photographs of a camouflaged car that they said were a Cobalt with a fresh design. The new Cobalt is to go into production in Lordstown in July or August next year, the reports said.

The reports add to the speculation that has swirled around the General Motors plant since last September. That’s when senior union leaders in Detroit said the plant would receive a new small-car model in 2009 and a midsize model in 2010.

Erich Merkle, an analyst with IRN in Grand Rapids., Mich., said his research shows that the small car will not be a new Cobalt but a new version of the Chevrolet Aveo. He added that the launch of the car has been pushed back to 2010.

The Aveo is smaller than the Cobalt. The car is made in South Korea, but GM is moving Aveo production to a new plant that’s to be completed in Mexico this year, Merkle said.

Eventually, production sites for the new Cobalt and Aveo models will be flipped, with the Cobalt going to two Mexican plants and the Aveo to Lordstown, he said. GM wants a higher-volume car at the new plant in San Luis Potosi, Mexico, he said.

GM sells about 200,000 Cobalts a year in the U.S., while the new Aveo is expected to sell about 80,000, Merkle said.

To fill up Lordstown’s production lines, GM intends to bring a new midsize model to the plant in 2011, he said. It will have Pontiac and Cadillac versions, he said.

Merkle’s projections match the information released in September by the United Auto Workers. It said a model with an underbody platform that is smaller than the Cobalt would come to the plant first, followed by one with a larger underbody platform.

GM hasn’t been trying to clear up the reports. Chris Lee, a GM spokesman, said the company doesn’t comment on future product placement.

Greg Gardner, an analyst with Harbour Associates in Troy, Mich., cautioned that the assembly plant will need a new local contract before any new models are committed to the plant. Negotiations on a new deal are continuing, while voting on a tentative deal at the adjacent fabricating plant was to end today.

The Web sites that reported on the Cobalt attributed their photos to Brenda Priddy Co. and said they were shot at a GM test track in Arizona.

Motor Trend complimented the lines on the side of the car and noted that it has a two-tier grille similar to that of the new Chevrolet Malibu.

AutoBlog, which commented on the photos but didn’t address Lordstown, said the grille would help “further separate the Cobalt from its economy car past.” It said the new design is more refined than the current look and features a more prominent nose.

Leftlane reported that the primary engineering and development of the new Cobalt is coming from GM Daewoo. GM owns a majority of the South Korean automaker. Planning groups in Europe and North America will have input on the car, the Web site said.

It said the new Cobalt will share components and styling features with the next Daewoo Lacetti, a small car launched in 2002 and revised in 2006.

The Cobalt and Lacetti will have different styling cues on the front and rear and distinct headlamps and taillights, Leftlane said.

shilling@vindy.com