Looming Leno, O’Brien handoff sets up late-night guessing game

By Frazier Moore

NEW YORK — An orderly transfer of power: Is it possible?

With the presidency, sure. But what about late-night TV?

Despite lots of careful preparation, the Jay Leno-Conan O’Brien handoff coming next year smacks of something from Bizarro World. Will it fly with viewers — or crash? Can’t you just feel the suspense?

Maybe you’ve got more urgent matters to dwell on right now. Like, who wins the White House or how long Katie Couric can hang on. Or those Miley Cyrus photos.

But before you know it, late night will be back on the nation’s cultural radar screen (not just TV screens) in a way it hasn’t since the Late Night Follies of the early 1990s. In the wake of Johnny Carson’s retirement from “Tonight,” the message was clear: More people were hooked on the late-night upheaval than ever got around to watching Jay or Dave.

History could repeat itself.

In mid-2009, Leno will relinquish the host chair he has occupied since May 25, 1992. He’ll surrender NBC’s “Tonight” to O’Brien, who moves up an hour from the outpost of “Late Night.”

This transition plan was set in motion back in 2004, when NBC boldly pushed the button on a five-year countdown clock. Aimed at keeping O’Brien at NBC, the plan also guaranteed the network five more years of Leno’s services at 11:30 p.m., where he continues to reign as late-night ratings champ (averaging 4.7 million viewers this season). But NBC’s announcement instantly made Leno the odd man out — a designated lame duck, five years in advance, as his reward for a job well done.

By this time next year, viewers will be sizing up the first months of Conan’s “Late Night” successor, expected to be Jimmy Fallon. And by then, a guessing game should be well under way: What will the unintended fallout from NBC’s strategy be? What kind of aftershocks will hit the late-night landscape?

It’s never too soon to start making your predictions. Within the TV industry, the game has already begun. Broach the subject with television execs, and you hear bemusement, bewilderment and scorn at NBC’s tactics.

Meanwhile, these professional observers, speaking on condition of anonymity because the situation remains unsettled, spin out numerous scenarios for how things might shake out. CBS’ “Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson,” the hardy competitor to “Late Night,” will thrive — or struggle — against newcomer Fallon. David Letterman’s “Late Show” could boost its standing after years in second-place against Leno ... or not. And will the shakeup affect ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel? A case can be made either way.

But that’s just the sideshow. The towering uncertainty is Leno: Where will he land? He’s a tireless worker, loyal company man, top performer — all grounds for dismissal on Bizarro World.