A Senate bid by Ryan in 2010 still possible

By David Skolnick

About a year ago I wrote that Democrats looking to the 2010 election had U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Niles on the short list of potential challengers to U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich, a Republican from Cleveland.

MyDD.com, an influential Democratic political Web site, and the Democratic-affiliated Public Policy Polling recently touted Ryan, D-17th, as a strong challenger in the 2010 Senate race to Voinovich, one of the most successful politicians in Ohio during the past two decades.

Ryan’s top priority is to improve the economic condition of his congressional district, which includes portions of Mahoning and Trumbull counties.

As a member of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, Ryan has delivered the goods bringing millions of dollars to his district, primarily the Mahoning Valley portion, for various projects. Even more money is expected from the federal government in future years for the area because of Ryan’s influence in the House.

Even with his accomplishments in the House — and perhaps because of them — the talk of a potential Senate run for Ryan, who’s served in the U.S. House for less than six years, isn’t going away.

Ryan has repeatedly said he isn’t planning on taking on Voinovich. Ryan won’t have trouble winning re-election to a fourth term in the House in November. But it’s never wise for a politician to look past his current race and express interest in another job.

So don’t be surprised if Ryan “changes his mind” early next year and decides to run for the Senate.

It will largely depend on the 2008 election. Ryan would probably lean towards running if U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, wins in November, and Democrats pick up more congressional seats in that election.

Remember that Ted Strickland declined to run for governor in early 2005 only to announce his candidacy a few months later. Also, Sherrod Brown publicly stated he wouldn’t run for the U.S. Senate around the same time. Like Strickland, he later decided to seek the office.

Both won rather easily in 2006.

Public Policy Polling released a survey showing in a race for the Senate, Ryan and Voinovich have the support of 33 percent of those polled with 34 percent undecided.

The poll is extremely flawed for a number of reasons. The most prominent is those who were polled. Fifty-five percent consider themselves Democrats, 30 percent describe themselves as Republicans and 15 percent were “other.” A more accurate sample would have a lot of Democrats and more Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

The same poll had Obama beating Republican John McCain by 11 percentage points in Ohio. Not even hard-core Obama supporters would believe those numbers.

Despite the problems with the poll, those close to Ryan say the congressman “finds these numbers interesting.”

Add to that a recent post on MyDD.com that Voinovich’s approval rating in a recent poll by SurveyUSA, a company slightly more credible than PPP, was 46 percent.

The post goes on to claim Voinovich is vulnerable and “at least some talk appears to be pointed in the direction” of Ryan.

After Brown initially declined to run for the 2006 Senate seat, national Democrats urged Ryan to take that spot.

Ryan declined with raising money and campaigning across Ohio the key factors in his decision to not run.

Finances is one of Ryan’s problems. He typically spends about what he raises. If Ryan is to seriously consider a Senate bid that is something that has to stop.

Raising money for a competitive Senate seat in comparison to his House races in which he’s faced token Republican opposition will be much easier.

Ryan has some time to think about the 2010 Senate race. If he’s going to get into the race, a decision is needed by next spring.

A year ago, I suggested Ryan stay in the House because he could do a lot more for the Valley there. Now, I’m not so sure — and neither are Ryan’s advisers.