Views of candidates’ qualities keep presidential race close


Though voters don’t like to talk about it, race remains a deciding factor for many.

WASHINGTON (AP) — If Barack Obama’s got so many issues going for him in the presidential election, from the economy to war fatigue to a national hunger for change, how come John McCain is so close to him as their race begins in earnest?

Early polls suggest the contest is so competitive at this point largely because of how people view the personal qualities of Obama, the Democrat, and McCain, the Republican.

There’s a lot that people are considering, from the way the candidates look to how long they’ve been around to what they think — or at least what voters think they think. Here’s a look at what polls say about why the contest is so close, and what each candidates’ advantages might be:

Race

On an issue many are reluctant to discuss frankly with pollsters, the country’s reaction to Obama’s drive to become the first black president remains a wild card. Early indications are the Illinois senator faces important obstacles.

He trailed McCain among whites by 6 percentage points in a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll this month, and 9 points in a Pew Research Center survey in late May. That’s not bad for a Democrat: No Democratic presidential candidate has won the white vote since exit polls of voters began three decades ago, and only Bill Clinton even came close.

But there are danger signs for Obama. In a poll early this year by The Associated Press and Yahoo News, just 43 percent of whites said they view blacks favorably. In this month’s NBC-Journal poll, one in five whites said the candidate’s race would be important in deciding their vote. Nearly half of whites said they could not identify with Obama’s background or values, and more than one in three disagreed with the idea that he cares about people like them.

Some open questions about how much these findings matter: How many of the whites who are uncomfortable with Obama’s race would vote against a Democrat anyway for other reasons? How many of them live in states like those in the South where Democrats seldom win? And on the other side of the ledger, how many additional blacks and liberal whites will vote who otherwise may not?

Leadership and experience

McCain, the Arizona senator, has a significant advantage here. He’s seen as a stronger leader than Obama in the NBC-Journal poll, and gets hugely better grades than Obama in that survey for experience and his potential as commander in chief. People in the AP-Yahoo and other polls cite the military background of McCain, who was a Vietnam pilot and prisoner of war — a big plus in a time of war.

Ideology

Though a moderate within the Republican universe, McCain is seen as far more conservative than Obama — important in a country that still tilts to the right. In the AP-Yahoo poll in April, nearly four in 10 called themselves conservative and a bit more said they are moderate. Only one in five said they are liberal. Compare that to how the two men were viewed in this month’s Journal-NBC survey: About half called McCain conservative and a third said he is moderate. Obama is called liberal by six in 10, with only a quarter calling him moderate.

Likability

Here’s a personality trait where Obama has an advantage. The candidate you’d rather have a beer with often has the edge in elections, and the AP-Yahoo and other polls find Obama significantly more likable than McCain.