Obama, McCain wrong on Iraq

I can understand why John McCain is PO’d.

Barack Obama visits Iraq and admits things are better there, but he refuses to credit “the surge.”

“Sen. Obama believed the surge would increase violence and would not work,” I’m told by McCain’s foreign policy coordinator, Randy Scheunemann, angrily. “The surge has worked. This is an absolutely critical example of (Obama’s) poor judgment.”

So who’s the better foreign policy choice — the Arizona senator who hung tough on Iraq, or the Illinois senator who says we should leave by 2010? Let’s examine Sen. McCain’s outlook on Iraq and Afghanistan.

An unwavering supporter of the Iraq war, McCain long called for more U.S. troops there. Back in 2006-2007 he made a lonely stand in favor of a “surge” of 20,000 forces.

Obama’s supporters argue that what turned things around in Iraq was not the surge, but the decision by Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar province to turn against al-Qaida.

That is hair-splitting. What turned things around was the counterinsurgency strategy of Gen. David Petraeus, aided by the surge.

Virtuous circle

The extra troops helped stabilize violent areas of Baghdad: By establishing a presence in mixed neighborhoods, they diminished sectarian killing. As Sunni violence against Shiites diminished, Shiites felt less need for protection from the thuggish militia of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and turned against him. This created a virtuous circle.

So McCain is right that extra troops played a key role. But the real shift came when the White House belatedly adopted the Petraeus strategy after five years of Iraq disasters.

This counterinsurgency strategy could have been implemented in 2003, when Sunni tribal leaders were looking to be wooed. (Petraeus was already practicing it as a commander in Mosul.) It could have been implemented in 2006, when Sunnis were already desperate to reject al-Qaida. The administration’s failure to do so cost countless U.S. and Iraqi lives.

Despite his criticism of past White House incompetence, McCain can’t escape being linked to botched Bush postwar policy as the putative Republican candidate. Can the party that made such huge mistakes truly be trusted to do better under a different leader?

This brings us to the question of a timeline for withdrawing from Iraq.

Obama’s 16-month timetable is too rigid; it fails to take into account the likely bumps along the road to troop withdrawal. However, the pressure of public opinion — and Obama’s stance — got McCain to propose that most U.S. troops could return home by 2013. Scheunemann assured me this was not a timeline. “The difference between (McCain’s plan) and withdrawing one to two brigades a month (Obama’s plan) couldn’t be more stark,” he insisted.

He added, however, that any withdrawal date would have to be arrived at by “a discussion between two sovereign governments, as with the governments of South Korea, Japan and Germany in Europe.” The United States has maintained troops in the latter countries for decades.

Basic misunderstanding

This comparison with East Asia and Europe reveals a basic misunderstanding of the Middle East by the Mc- Cain team. Iraqis remember the longtime British colonial presence. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, in calling for a timeline similar to Obama’s, is playing the nationalist card in advance of coming elections. Iraq’s Shiite majority will be far less receptive to the humiliations of occupation now that they feel safer. Events seem to be moving faster than Sen. McCain has grasped.

That unexpected surge of change also applies to Afghanistan.

McCain still insists that the central front in the war on terrorism lies in Iraq. U.S. intelligence agencies differ. They believe the greatest threat to America comes from a reconstituted al-Qaida along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

McCain didn’t endorse U.S. commanders’ plea for three more U.S. brigades in Afghanistan until last week, after Obama called for an additional two brigades.

X Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune.