Analysts expect GM closings to continue

Analysts say another round of cuts at GM could be coming.

ROMULUS, Mich. (AP) — At a General Motors Corp. factory just west of Detroit, about 1,000 workers are still cranking out mighty but thirsty V-8 engines that go into pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles.

The automaker’s plans to cut 300,000 pickups and SUVs out of the production schedule by the end of next year should be a concern at Romulus Powertrain, because industry analysts say any factory that makes mostly truck components could be in danger of closure.

GM officials say half of the production cut will come from accelerating previously announced closures at four assembly plants. They hinted the other half could come from canceling shifts at other factories.

Analysts, however, say it’s possible another assembly plant could be shuttered, and they say some factories that make truck parts almost certainly will be closed.

“Virtually no factory is off the table,” said Michael Robinet, vice president of global forecast services for CSM Worldwide, an auto industry consulting company based in Northville, Mich.

GM announced in June that it would idle pickup and SUV factories in Janesville, Wis.; Oshawa, Ontario; Moraine, Ohio; and Toluca, Mexico, as it tries to deal with a rapid shift to smaller vehicles brought on by $4-per-gallon gasoline. This week, the company said it will speed up the closures, although it didn’t give specifics.

GM will be left with four pickup plants, one SUV factory and one full-size van plant in the U.S. It also has truck factories in Mexico.

Of the U.S. pickup plants, analysts said one in Pontiac is most vulnerable because it’s operating on only one shift, although it might not be closed for several years.

A pickup plant in nearby Flint is still running on two shifts, and it’s presumably safe because it’s the only one that builds the 1-ton crew-cab body style of the heavy-duty pickups, said Haig Stoddard, an auto analyst with the consulting company Global Insight.

The Fort Wayne, Ind., pickup plant probably won’t be considered for closure because it’s GM’s productivity star with a highly flexible work force, said Greg Gardner, an analyst with the Oliver Wyman Group.

A Shreveport, La., factory that makes midsize pickups also should be safe, and the Arlington, Texas, SUV factory likely will remain for the time being, although production could be shifted at some point to Mexico, analysts said.

But several parts plants that mainly feed truck factories could get the ax because GM won’t need as many engines, transmissions and other parts once the four assembly plants are closed, analysts said.

“I’m sure there are going to be cuts in powertrain because they have so many plants that are building engines for the full-size trucks,” Stoddard said. “There probably will be some plant closures.”

Romulus, which along with several other plants builds mainly V-8 engines, is among those that might be closed, Gardner said.

“Given the gasoline prices now, do they need that much V-8 capacity?” he asked.

Larry Long, president of the United Auto Workers local at the plant, said everyone knows GM will be cutting back, yet he’s not too worried. People, he said, still will need pickup trucks and SUVs for work or to haul people, despite high gas prices.

“You’re still going to have so many trucks. You’re still going to have some SUVs,” he said.