Candidates on the hunt for delegates

Republicans are competing for Florida’s 57 delegates today.

SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS

WASHINGTON — This month we’ve seen the headlines: “McCain captures New Hampshire,” “Clinton takes Nevada,” “South Carolina goes to Obama.”

Finishing first in states gets the attention.

But there’s a numbers game going on below the media radar screen that’s becoming more important as the Republican and Democratic campaigns approach “Tsunami Tuesday” with no clear front-runners.

The numbers to remember: 1,191 for the Republicans and 2,025 for the Democrats.

That’s how many delegates a candidate needs to secure the nomination at the party conventions in late summer. To get there, candidates are trying different strategies, often improvising quickly, as they adapt to a compressed schedule of primaries and caucuses.

The allocation of delegates is a process marked by anomalies and quirks, with some key differences between the two parties and no assurance that winning the most votes will translate into earning the most delegates. In the past, when races were decided early, these rules did not matter much. Now they could help decide who wins.

“Early on, it’s all about momentum,” said Stephen Wayne, author of several books on presidential politics. “But that’s about to change with so many contests coming up.”

Indeed, candidates are adjusting to take on the hunt for delegates.

Take Republican Mitt Romney, who largely abandoned South Carolina when it was clear he could not win, and put some extra time and money into Nevada, which had a small turnout and less media attention.

Some Republicans criticized Romney, but the move paid off. He won 17 delegates in Nevada, where he received 22,646 votes. John McCain won just two more delegates than that in South Carolina, where he took 140,798 votes. McCain may have received huge publicity in New Hampshire, but that yielded a mere seven delegates. In Wyoming, off the beaten track, Romney captured eight delegates.

After the first six states, Romney has the most delegates (59), followed by Mike Huckabee (40) and McCain (36). That, of course, will change dramatically today when the winner of Florida will get all 57 delegates from that state.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are constantly recalibrating, making changes they think will win them the most possible delegates in more than 20 states, including California, that vote on “Tsunami Tuesday,” Feb. 5. At stake that day are almost 1,700 delegates.

All Democratic contests are proportional, with each candidate earning delegates that match his or her percentage of the vote, as long it’s more than 15 percent. That means intriguing scenarios are possible. Obama can win a chunk of delegates in Clinton’s stronghold of New York; Clinton can do the same in Obama’s home state of Illinois.

Clinton will try to win big in New York, New Jersey, California and Arkansas. Besides Illinois, Obama is banking on states such as Georgia and Missouri, as well as caucus states — Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas — where he organized early.

There’s a big wild card in the Democratic race — the nearly 800 “super-delegates,” who can support anyone they want. These members of Congress, governors and party leaders could gravitate toward a front-runner after Feb. 5. So far, 200 support Clinton, 114 back Obama and 32 endorse John Edwards, with the rest uncommitted, the Associated Press reports.

A close Clinton-Obama race could magnify the role of Edwards, who is unlikely to get the nomination, but whose delegates might ultimately provide either front-runner with the margin of victory. With the proportional system, Edwards could pick up delegates in several Feb. 5 states, even if he finished third everywhere. His campaign is aiming for at least 200 delegates that day.