Romney wins Michigan primary

John McCain has his work cut out for him in North Carolina.

ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH

WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney is back in the game thanks to help from the old homestead. John McCain was left wondering if the GOP will ever give him a home.

Romney’s critical victory in the state where his father was elected three times as governor left the race for the GOP nomination more unsettled than ever. In his season of setbacks up to now, Romney had won only in tiny Wyoming, but his Michigan victory makes it certain that he’ll be a force by the time Missouri, Illinois and 20 other states vote Feb. 5.

For McCain, the Arizona senator, Michigan disrupted the momentum from his Lazarus-like comeback in winning New Hampshire last week. And his path gets rockier Saturday in South Carolina, a closed primary where he won’t have his time-tested political weapon of independents to endorse his unconventional brand of Republicanism.

On a day the stock market plunged by 277 points, Michigan voters rose up to proclaim that economic issues were by far their biggest concern — more than the war and all the other issues combined. Michigan’s 7.4 percent unemployment race is the nation’s worst; Missouri and Illinois also rank among the worst with 5.2 percent out of work in both states in December.

Romney tailored his appeal to economic issues, and it paid off.

“Romney, to his credit, focused on the economy,” said Vincent Hutches, a University of Michigan associate professor of political science. “It was a big issue here in light of the economy’s long sluggishness, the decline of the auto industry and unemployment. But the economy isn’t just bad here.”

Michigan provided no conclusive end in the campaigns but it likely sounded the start of an intense new focus by both parties on the economy. Michigan voters’ reaction to Romney’s appeal — and Hillary Clinton’s success in New Hampshire stressing the economy — could well mean jarring shifts in candidates’ messages in the days ahead:

UJan. 19, South Carolina (GOP): In a state with the fourth-highest unemployment rate, two other GOP hopefuls — Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson — will get a severe test competing in an electorate where 39 percent of GOP voters identify themselves as evangelicals. McCain’s 2000 quest for the presidency was derailed here and it wouldn’t seem to be friendly for Romney. Huckabee raised expectations by predicting he’ll win in South Carolina.

UJan. 19, Nevada. A poll found Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards separated by five percentage points, the margin of error. McCain polled just slightly more than former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee.

UJan. 29, Florida. It’s where Giuliani — who probably cheered Romney’s victory — is making his stand in the race for a trove of 57 delegates. For Democrats, it’s significant to see who is riding a wave of momentum heading into Feb. 5 even though it’s another state where the national party stripped delegates for shifting the vote forward.

McCain did not receive the outpouring of independents as he had hoped, which points to a series of challenges in the days ahead. He must figure out how to once again inspire the independent voters who have been his political strength in the past while appealing to a GOP conservative base that distrusts him.

Those tasks could be difficult considering that McCain’s strengths are issues related to national security rather than the economic matters rising to front of voters’ minds. His self-described truth-telling warning of global warming threats and telling Michigan voters they’ll never again see many of the jobs they’ve lost apparently was not the message they wanted to hear.

Romney’s solid Michigan victory revived a candidacy that had been somewhat of a mystery up to now.

He’s the candidate straight out of central casting with his uncommonly good looks, a reassuring radio voice and a reputation for smart, GOP governing in a bastion of Democrats. His well-financed campaign has plenty to spend, which he showed once again in Michigan by running roughly four times as many television ads as McCain.

But after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, the former Massachusetts governor was left fending off skeptics and groping for solutions.

Romney tried a new approach in Michigan by striking populist, anti-Washington themes that seemed incongruous to some coming from a free-market advocate who had presented himself until recently as the embodiment of the Republican establishment, taking pains to defend President George W. Bush.