Aging population concerns officials

2012 is when the gap
between people of
retirement age and those entering the work force
disappears.

By MARC KOVAC

VINDICATOR CORRESPONDENT

COLUMBUS — State lawmakers would be wise to pay heed to Ohio’s aging population when considering program changes that would affect the elderly.

In particular, according to a report released by the Ohio Public Expenditure Council, the number of baby boomers reaching retirement age in coming years will outpace the number turning 25.

Translated, that could mean a strain on state and local budgets, considering the number of soon-to-be retirees who will rely on government programs for support, said Rick Yocum, president of the nonpartisan, nonprofit group.

“The senior citizen population will grow at a pace we’ve not seen before, and it will stick around for longer than any in history,” he said. “That’s wonderful news for the baby boomers; it’s a potential disaster for states’ budgets.”

The council released a comparable report about two years ago, pinpointing 2012 as the year when the gap between people of retirement age and those entering the work force was to disappear. Its conclusions were based on U.S. Census and other data.

But, Yocum said last week, that earlier study didn’t draw the trend lines out far enough.

Around 2018-2020, the number of people reaching age 65 will surpass the number turning 25, he said. From 2005-2010, the number of people reaching retirement age (and thus leaving the work force) was estimated at 553,000, while the number entering the work force was 816,000, according to the council.

From 2011-2020, those numbers are projected to be 1.6 million and 1 million, respectively. And from 2021-2030, the numbers are projected to reach 1.8 million and 1.2 million, respectively.

“It’s a pretty significant increase,” Yocum said. “So there’s going to be an older, graying Ohio population and more people eligible for Medicaid and Medicare.”

That could mean increasing numbers of skilled workers leaving jobs and greater strains on government programs, Yocum said.

Making matters more complicated: About one-fourth of retirees “have absolutely no provisions for retirement,” he said. “They’re going to rely on government programs to help them along.”

Lawmakers should pay attention to the aging trends as they consider expanding programs or exempting retirement plans from income tax collections, for example, and “be certain they’re not digging a hole that they cannot fill beginning in 2012,” Yocum added.