Primary season begins with tonight’s caucuses

Turnout is expected to be much higher than in previous years.

PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

DES MOINES, Iowa — Starting tonight, the presidential campaign embarks on a political sprint across the nation that is likely to produce a nominee for one or both of the major parties by the first Tuesday in February.

First, though, it’s Iowa’s moment.

Tonight, residents who have seen far more of the candidates than people living anywhere else will head to school gymnasiums, church basements and community centers to start the presidential selection process.

Given the staggering amounts of time and money the contenders have invested here, turnout in the Iowa caucuses will almost surely be significantly higher than in years past, particularly for the Democrats.

Analysts say the size of the turnout for each party, and the demographic makeup of first-time participants, will be huge factors in determining the outcome.

On the Republican side, the battle is between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who left Iowa for California on Wednesday afternoon so that he could appear on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno.

Among the Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are the main contenders, with some polls showing Edwards falling slightly behind the other two.

All of the contenders are hoping that the Iowa results will give them a boost heading into Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire.

Their Iowa campaign organizations were preparing for their legions of precinct captains to make every effort to get supporters to the nearly 2,000 caucus sites at the appointed time. Weeks ago, for instance, the Clinton campaign purchased hundreds of snow shovels, just in case.

As it happens, weather will not be a problem. Forecasts call for a clear night with temperatures in the seasonable 20s.

With the caucuses not slated to start until 7:30 p.m. EST, some of the candidates planned to keep on campaigning until late this afternoon. And two Republicans who’d been among the missing returned to Iowa on Wednesday to join the action.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who’s been focused on New Hampshire and has not run a single commercial in Iowa, came back late in the day for a 24-hour fly-around, with the apparent goal of nailing down third place.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, the prolific fundraiser who’s spent heavily on Iowa television but has not campaigned much here, flew in for several events in Des Moines.

All of the other candidates were campaigning frenetically, no one more so than Edwards. On Wednesday night, he completed a round-the-clock, 36-hour “Marathon for the Middle Class” with a rally/concert featuring singer John Mellencamp performing “This Is Our Country.” The song fits perfectly with Edwards’ anti-corporate, populist message.

“We’re going to stand up and rise up together and start a tidal wave of change that begins here in Iowa and sweeps across this country with a force that cannot even be imagined,” Edwards told those who came out to see him. “I’m going to give you back the real Democratic Party.”

Clinton had five stops on her schedule Wednesday. But the main event was her prerecorded, two-minute pitch, which was televised before or after early evening newscasts on stations throughout the state.

“After all the town meetings, the pie and coffee,” Clinton said in the video, “it comes down to this: Who is ready to be president and ready to start solving the big challenges we face on day one?”

Obama, who focused Wednesday on the heavily Democratic cities of eastern Iowa, finished with a late rally in Des Moines. While the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll shows him in the lead, and his own campaign manager has predicted victory, the candidate was telling supporters to take nothing for granted.

“I will carry your voices to the White House, and I will fight for you every day I am there,” Obama said in his own two-minute, statewide video. “So I ask you to caucus tomorrow. Not just for me but for your hopes, for your dreams, for the America you believe is possible.”

Among Democratic strategists, turnout had been the prime subject of conversation in recent days.

The consensus is that a huge increase in caucus participation — about 125,000 Democrats participated four years ago — would benefit Obama. He’s popular among people under 40, college students, political independents and some Republicans, who are permitted to re-register as Democrats at the caucus door.

A more modest increase, the theory goes, might help Clinton, who’s relying on large numbers of women over 50. A lesser one would be good news for Edwards, who’s big among union members and other perennial caucus attendees.