Experts were wrong: Ohio does matter

DAVID SKOLNICK \ Politics

Experts were wrong: Ohio does matter

Ohio Demo-cratic voters were not supposed to be in this position.

The general consensus for months was the Democratic presidential nomination would be decided no later than Feb. 5 when 22 states held primaries and caucuses.

“There was already a winner before it started,” Michelle Obama, wife of one of the two remaining Democratic presidential candidates, said during a recent stump speech in Warren. “I thought, ‘It’s over and we haven’t run yet.’”

It turns out the general consensus was incorrect.

The big race

The race between U.S. Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, considered the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee before the primaries and caucuses began, isn’t over.

Heading into Tuesday, Obama holds a small lead over Clinton in the race for delegates, and has won the most state primaries and caucuses.

Tuesday’s primaries in delegate-rich Ohio and Texas as well as in Rhode Island and Vermont could end Clinton’s campaign.

Polls show Texas is too close to call.

In Ohio, Clinton’s double-digit lead in the polls is evaporating. She’s still ahead, but come Tuesday don’t be surprised if she loses Ohio or ekes out a victory in a state in which she needs a strong win.

If she loses Texas and Ohio, it would cripple or kill her campaign.

In the past week or so, I’ve talked to people who prefer one candidate over the other.

Many of them can’t give a definitive reason why they support Obama or Clinton.

I often get from Clinton supporters that she has more experience than Obama.

The Obama supporters say his message of hope and change resonates with them.

Also, women are excited by the opportunity to elect a woman as president. Blacks are excited by the chance to elect Obama. After more than 200 years of white guys as president, no one can be faulted for simply wanting a change.

Subjective factor

As for experience, it’s a subjective topic. Clinton is 14 years older than Obama so obviously she has more life experience.

She spent eight years as one of the most politically active first ladies in our lifetime.

She was elected in 2006 to her second six-year term in the U.S. Senate representing New York. Obama was elected to a six-year term in the U.S. Senate representing Illinois in 2004 after eight years in the Illinois Senate.

Neither of them have spent much time in the Senate in recent months opting instead to campaign for the presidency.

As for Obama’s message of hope and change, he gives a hell of a stump speech. His wife is also impressive. But the reality is neither provides much in the way of details.

That hasn’t deterred many of Obama’s supporters who are so enthusiastic and passionate about electing him because they’re so hungry for change.

What type of change?

Typically the first thing I hear is change from George W. Bush.

When I ask what else, people say creating jobs, offering universal health care, re-evaluating trade agreements, improving education and ending the war in Iraq while keeping taxes down for working-class families.

Clinton is proposing the same changes with some differences. But in my discussions her supporters don’t have the passion of those who support Obama.

Obama has been able to tap into that sentiment while Clinton’s efforts to do aren’t nearly as successful.

While the two Democrats share the same ideals and the primary has created a lot of interest among voters, it will be interesting to see what happens after the party selects a nominee.

Will the Obama supporters jump on board with Clinton if she wins? Will Clinton backers go with Obama should he emerge as the party’s choice?

Mahoning Valley

It will be particularly interesting in the Mahoning Valley where a strong, strong turnout of Democratic voters is needed for that party’s presidential nominee to win the bellwether state of Ohio.

Those who live in the Youngstown area are fiscal conservatives. We have a high veteran population.

Is it possible that John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, will appeal to Obama supporters who won’t support Clinton and vice versa?