Big scary numbers

Big scary numbers

Scripps Howard: The federal government is out with a scary new report on the projected cost of health care over the next decade. These are big numbers.

Government spending on health care will nearly double to more than $2 trillion in 2017 and total national spending on health care will also nearly double, to $4.3 trillion.

By way of comparison, all federal spending for 2009 — on everything, including the Pentagon — is expected to be $3.1 trillion.

Over the next decade, the rate of increase in health-care spending is expected to be three times the rate of inflation and two full percentage points more than the rate of all economic growth. In 2015, it will consume one-fifth of our gross domestic product.

The popular Medicare program will also nearly double over the 10 years, from $427 billion in 2007 to $844 billion and the leading edge of the baby boom only starts becoming eligible in 2011. And if private Medicare plans become more popular, that too may increase costs.

Aging population

The factors that are driving the increases are unlikely to change — an aging population, boomer retirees, advances in drugs and medical technology — and the seniors who receive these benefits will be an even more powerful voting bloc.

Almost everybody who has looked at these numbers, including the current Health and Human Services secretary, Mike Leavitt, says they are unsustainable. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are promising to extend the health-care umbrella even further, but the $100 billion additional each year they are planning to spend looks kind of pale next to the growing demand for the services we already have.

In truth, the public shows little enthusiasm for tackling health-care costs and this is reflected in congressional inaction. The Newt Gingrich-led Republicans were hammered in the mid-1990s for trying to restrain the rate of growth of Medicare. This year, President Bush proposed reducing the rate of growth in Medicare spending by $178 billion and the proposal fell flat with Congress.