Absentee ballots to set a record

COLUMBUS (AP) — Election officials expect the number of Ohio voters using absentee ballots for the now-crucial presidential primary on March 4 to break a record — presenting a challenge to Sen. Barack Obama as he strives to boost his name recognition and overcome significant deficits in state polls.

This marks the first presidential election year in which any Ohio voter can vote on absentee ballots in what is essentially an opportunity to vote early. Under the change approved by state lawmakers in 2005, more than 200,000 voters have already requested the ballots, which began going out Friday. Officials predict nearly 20 percent of registered voters may end up choosing the option.

Absentee voters may choose to send in their ballots when they receive them. Obama’s campaign is relishing the opportunity to campaign in Ohio for roughly three weeks before the state’s delegate-rich primary but may not have a chance to reach a large percentage of voters before they make their decision.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has a more widely known name and led in Ohio polls taken before primary season began, including in an August Quinnipiac University poll that showed her beating Obama 41 percent to 16 percent.

The candidates are currently locked in a tight battle for 2,025 delegates needed for nomination. Ohio has 161 Democratic delegates at stake.

“It’s an advantage that typically goes to the incumbent, who in this case is Senator Clinton, so to speak,” said Obama Deputy Campaign Manager Steve Hildebrand about absentee and early voting options.

Trying to minimize the advantage of the absentee votes, the campaign will soon start paid advertising in Ohio, Hildebrand said. Both campaigns opened campaign operations in the state this week after a virtual draw in the 22-state Super Tuesday contests. Obama himself will come to Ohio in the days after contests elsewhere on Tuesday.

Polls from early primary and caucus states show that Obama generally does better than Clinton among voters who make up their minds closer to Election Day. A higher percentage of Clinton voters make a decision further away from the election.

In New Hampshire, a state Obama lost to Clinton, he beat her among voters who decided on Election Day, in the last week and in the last month. But among voters who made up their minds more than a month before the election, Clinton beat Obama 41 percent to 28 percent.

In Nevada, 59 percent of voters who decided more than a month before the caucus chose Clinton to Obama’s 34 percent. He beat her among those that decided in the last month, the last week, and the last three days, although she beat him 48 percent to 36 percent among those who decided the day of the caucus.

“All things considered, absentee ballots would tend to benefit Hillary Clinton,” said John Green, a political science professor at the University of Akron.

Those who use early voting or turn in absentee ballots long before election day may not have the opportunity to be influenced by outcomes in other states. Ohioans filling out and returning their absentee ballots immediately would not be influenced by outcomes in states such as Maryland and Virginia, which decide Tuesday, and Washington and Wisconsin, which decide Feb. 19.

The Clinton campaign is actively encouraging absentee voting — but the campaign said it is because they want supporters to vote early and then spend time on the day of the election volunteering to get other voters to the polls.

“We will be holding events across the state next week to encourage our supporters to vote early, either by absentee or at local boards of elections,” said Clinton spokesman Isaac Baker.

“There’s a lot of support for her in Ohio already and, particularly, her focus on the economy resonates in Ohio where folks are looking for real solutions.”