Economists expect unemployment rate to rise

December 19, 2008 at 12:00a.m.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer people than expected requested unemployment benefits last week, but the dip is likely to be temporary as more companies lay off workers, and economists expect the jobless rate to rise as the recession deepens.

Companies ranging from satellite radio operator Sirius XM Radio Inc. to heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. announced job cuts Thursday. New York-based Sirius said it would cut more than 450 jobs, or about 20 percent of its work force, by the end of the year. Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar said it will lay off more than 800 workers.

The stock markets fell on investor concerns about the economy and a ratings downgrade on an American icon. Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service lowered its outlook for General Electric Co. and its GE Capital finance arm to negative from stable. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 219 points, or about 2.5 percent, to 8,604.99.

Still, some good economic news emerged Thursday. Freddie Mac said mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest level on records dating back to 1971, in part due to the Federal Reserve’s cut of its key short-term rate to nearly zero Tuesday.

Separately, federal regulators adopted sweeping new rules for the credit card industry that will shield consumers from increases in interest rates on existing account balances. And President-elect Barack Obama indicated that more regulatory changes are coming.

But the latest jobless claims numbers were sobering. They showed that besides laying off workers, employers are slow to hire, trends that economists said will send the unemployment rate higher in coming months.

The Labor Department reported that new applications for jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 554,000 for the week ending Dec. 13, from an upwardly revised figure of 575,000 the previous week.

One likely reason for the improvement is that the figure was inflated two weeks ago by applicants who delayed filing their claims during the Thanksgiving holiday week, a Labor Department analyst said.

Still, the four-week moving average, which smooths out fluctuations, rose slightly to 543,750 claims, the highest since December 1982. The labor force has grown by about half since then.

The department reported earlier this month that employers cut a net total of 533,000 jobs in November, boosting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, the highest in 15 years.

Total job losses this month “could well be larger than the November decline,” Abiel Reinhart, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase Bank, wrote in a client note.

The jobless claims numbers also suggest that the unemployment rate could rise by at least 0.2 percentage point this month, Reinhart wrote.