21st century policing necessitates proaction

The traditional work of police officers has been, at best, reactionary. A crime is committed, an investigation ensues and in about 47-percent of cases an arrest is made. That model has been around for more than a century. In that time, crime rates have fluctuated with dramatic increases and decreases to which no one has been able to provide a coherent reason for swings in either direction.

There has been an effort to make police work more proactive. Crime prevention programs have flourished in an effort to steer young people, and adults, toward a life of law abiding tranquility. Citizens have been advised to be more vigilant, secure their homes and watch out for their neighbors, all in the name of reducing crime.

Some police departments are now working with researchers and software designers to take prevention to a new level. Instead of working on instinct and institutional memory, police officers are working with sophisticated computer models to predict crime and victimization.

The researchers are taking the information that police officers know about the streets they patrol, coupled with massive amounts of crime and victim data, which then provides police with predictive tools that can assist them in intervening before a crime is committed.

Old crime patterns

According to Governing magazine, the new predictive tools allow the matching of new crime trends with old crime patterns. The data is mined for commonalities and clues. Essentially, the software helps connect the dots that might not be readily apparent to a police officer on patrol.

The use of predictive crime fighting technology is not an entirely novel idea. In 1994 New York City created Comp Stat. Crime data was continuously downloaded and mapped precinct-by- precinct. This data was then reviewed at weekly precinct commander meetings. Police Chief William Bratton empowered the precinct commanders to devise strategies and tactics to solve problems and reduce crime within their precincts. With the additional authority came accountability. Commanders who were not reducing crime were replaced.

Comp Stat was one component of New York’s dramatic decline in crime. According to the New York Times, in 1990 there were 2,245 murders in New York City. In 2007 there were only 494, the lowest level in more than 40 years.

The concept of crime prediction has expanded as some criminologists began to think about crime in new ways. The primary focus for those who study crime has traditionally been on the offenders. More attention is now being paid to the victims of crime. Lifestyle, environment and route activity have significantly influenced thinking about criminal victimization and crime rates. The role of the victims and their interaction with the environment has opened the door to the study of victimization patterns, the opportunity for crime and how they impact crime rates.

How does crime prediction work? Research has found that a significant amount of crime victims come from a small concentration of neighborhoods. Lawrence Sherman of the University of Pennsylvania bore that out in research he conducted in Minneapolis. According to Philadelphia magazine, Sherman found that 420 of the Minneapolis’ street corners had 20 or more victims of gun crime. He mapped the criminal activity into 110 “hot spots.” The “hot spots” received enhanced patrols between 7 p.m. and 1 a.m. seven days a week focusing on gun reduction. After six months gun crime had decreased by 49-percent.

Small towns

Crime prediction is not just for big cities. The police department in Erlander, Ky., in collaboration with 10 other small town police departments, recently began using crime prediction software. The Erlander Police Department provided Governing magazine with an example of using predictive tools in a small town, “If the software notices a rise in injuries related to auto accidents on a certain section of roadway, during a certain set of hours, cops can check to see if there’s a hazard to blame, or deploy radar enforcement to slow down traffic.”

As the economy continues to decline, many police departments, big and small, will face a reduction in personnel. Technology must play a role in using public safety resources and manpower in the most cost-effective and efficient manner.

X Matthew T. Mangino is the former district attorney of Lawrence County. He is a featured columnist for the Pennsylvania Law Weekly. He can be reached at matthewmangino@aol.com)