Georgia crisis could signal trouble for Israel

By FRIDA GHITIS

The war between a resurgent Russia and tiny Georgia over the microscopic region of South Ossetia should have little impact on another miniature country on the shores of the Mediterranean. And yet, the course of this conflict points in a direction that should trouble those who care about Israel and about the prospects for peace in the Middle East.

The rumblings of a new model of Cold War could mean cooperation between the West and Russia on matters crucial to Israel, particularly Iran, is coming to an end. Even worse, a possible new cycle of strategic competition between Moscow and Washington could become a game-changer in the Middle East.

Israel has maintained a strong and friendly relationship with Georgia. At the same time, links with Moscow — the traditional supporter of Israel’s enemies during the Cold War — have also improved markedly over the years. The new conflict placed Israel in a position where it might face a choice between betraying an old friend and antagonizing a country — Russia — with the ability to bolster Israel’s most dangerous enemies. Diplomats appeared to find their way through the thorny path between the two nations. In the end, however, larger geopolitical forces outside Israel’s control could easily mean that the Russo-Georgian war is the first step in a global realignment that harms Israel’s interests.

Missile defense system

On Wednesday, the United States and Poland signed an agreement placing a missile defense system on Polish soil, a deal that could lead Russia to respond by placing missiles on the soil of a nation unfriendly to NATO.

This might have little to do with Israel, except that the recipient of new Russian missiles could well be Syria, which is still technically in a state of war with Israel.

Late in 2007, Israeli government strategists predicted that a conflict between Tbilisi and Moscow was likely. As a result, Israel started ending arms sales to Georgia. Tbilisi has been a client of private Israeli defense firms. Most sales had already stopped when the war began.

Once the fighting started, the Israel’s Foreign Ministry told the Ministry of Defense it should suspend all private arms sales to Georgia. At the same time, the Foreign Ministry made a strong statement in support of Georgia’s territorial integrity.

The diplomatic maneuver may have worked, but all is not well.

Israel’s need to see Iran’s nuclear ambitions thwarted could become the first victim of this conflict.

While Iran has been calling for Israel’s destruction, the international community generally agrees that Iran’s nuclear program represent a threat to the entire world, not just to Israel. Israel’s hope is that diplomatic efforts will succeed in deterring Iran.

The strategy to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons relies on international sanctions, which are all but meaningless without Russian help. And efforts to give sanctions the imprimatur of the entire international community would fail without Russian cooperation, since Russia’s veto power in the United Nations Security Council allows it to block U.N. resolutions.

In reality, Russia has been a reluctant partner in efforts to stop Iran”s nuclear program. Russians are helping build one of Iran’s nuclear facilities in Bushehr, and they have worked to stall U.N. efforts. Russia has mixed feelings about Iran.

Russia and Iran have a long history of animosity. The two countries are not ideological or historical allies. But if they see a common enemy in the U.S. and the West, they would be more inclined to act together.

The signs so far are mixed. Russian Prime Minister Putin spoke with Israeli President Shimon Peres in Beijing at the Olympic Games. Their conversation came after the conflict in Georgia had started. Putin reportedly told Peres, “I am not indifferent to Israel’s concerns over a nuclear-armed Iran. There should be no doubt that Russia does not want a nuclear Iran.”

Israel, however, faces other threats besides Iran. There, too, Russia could create problems if it decides to start arming Israel’s enemies, as it did during the Cold War, to tweak the United States.

Common interests

A more optimistic possibility is that Russia and the West will remember they do have common interests. After all, the Islamic Republic could increase instability in and around Russia, stirring up trouble with Russia”s Muslim minorities.

If it is true that Moscow wants to stop Iran, it is precisely the Iran issue that could provide a road to reconciliation with the West.

Ultimately, it’s mostly out of Israel’s hands. As Israelis try to glean lessons from a battered Georgia, the talk in Israel now is that tiny countries — such as Georgia and Israel — cannot rely on their friends coming to their rescue; they must stand ready to defend themselves.

X Frida Ghitis writes about global affairs for the Miami Herald. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.