Will political drama outstrip Olympics?

By James Klurfeld

Like a lot of you, I’ve spent most of my evenings the last two weeks, late into the night, watching the summer Olympics from China.

So what should I do next week when the Olympics are over? Watch the political conventions?

It won’t be the same.

What makes the Olympics riveting television is the unpredictable nature of the events. There was no guarantee that Michael Phelps would win those eight gold medals. The 400-meter freestyle relay-team win and his triumph in the 100-meter butterfly were decided by almost immeasurably close margins. Not to mention the excitement of the gymnasts, hurdlers, sprinters, volleyball players and the rest.

There will be no such drama in Denver or St. Paul.

I’m not saying that the conventions are unimportant. But the reality is that political conventions ain’t what they used to be — and haven’t been for many years. They are carefully scripted, down-to-the-minute, television shows meant to kick off the fall campaign season. There’s nothing spontaneous or unpredictable about them.

They aren’t run by politicians so much as by television producers. The arena isn’t a convention hall as much as it’s a studio. And I’ve often felt that we in the press are nothing but props or bit actors.

If you want to make an analogy to the Olympics, the almost six-month primary season would be a fair comparison. Now those were races — especially for the Democrats — right up there with Phelps and company. They had all the agony and ecstasy of spills over a hurdle and finger-tip triumphs.

Changing role

Just the fact that the two parties have moved the conventions to the last week in August and the first in September is an example of how the role of the conventions has changed. They used to be scheduled much earlier in the summer because, once upon a time, the conventions actually decided who the party’s standard-bearer would be. It was only after them that the candidates would organize for the fall campaign.

In contrast, Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain have been preparing for the fall for months now. The conventions are an important part, but not a separate aspect, of the campaign.

That McCain and Obama are both trying to draw their selections of running mates out into multiple-day dramas only highlights how scripted the conventions themselves will be. The Obama camp hinted his decision might be revealed yesterday or maybe today. And the press helps build the suspense because there’s nothing else unpredictable to write about. It’s all part of the show.

Not that things can’t go wrong at the conventions — they can. In 1992, President George H.W. Bush lost control of the production in Houston when Pat Buchanan and his right-wing supporters stomped over his desire for a more moderate message. That helped propel Bill Clinton and Al Gore into the White House. Even in 1980, the split between the supporters of President Jimmy Carter and Sen. Ted Kennedy hurt the Democrats coming out of that convention, held in New York. But, then again, Carter was already damaged by his management of the economy and the Iran hostage crisis.

I hope there will be some magic moments in the next two weeks, like Gov. Mario Cuomo’s keynote in 1984 in San Francisco, or Obama’s speech just four years ago in Boston — or, for that matter, Buchanan’s stepping all over Bush’s message in 1992. I’m anxious to hear what our New York senator, Hillary Clinton, has to say and just how nasty to the Democrats former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will be when he gives the GOP keynote. And then there are the culminating acceptance speeches — the real purpose of the conventions these days.

Look at it this way: The Olympics are sports, fun and games. They are riveting, but they don’t really matter. Which is fine. We needed a summer break. Who will govern this country is a question that matters, and that race resumes Monday in Denver. I’ll be watching.

X James Klurfeld is a professor of journalism at Stony Brook University. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.