Both Democratic camps claim lead in popular vote

WASHINGTON (AP) — If numbers don’t lie, the Democratic presidential race is proving they can confuse: Both campaigns claim they are ahead in the popular vote.

The day after her big win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that she now has more votes than anybody who has ever run for president in a Democratic primary.

Not so fast, Barack Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters in a conference call. Obama has a comfortable lead in the popular vote and doesn’t expect to lose it by the time voting ends June 3, Plouffe said.

So who is right?

It depends on how the votes are counted. And even using Clinton’s method, she may not stay ahead for long.

Clinton is including Michigan and Florida, primaries she won after all the candidates agreed to boycott the states for holding votes too early for party rules. Obama had his name pulled off the ballot in Michigan, so he doesn’t get a single vote from that state.

“I’m very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else, and I am proud of that,” Clinton said at a rally in Indianapolis. “It’s a very close race, but if you count, as I count, the 2.3 million people who voted in Michigan and Florida, then we are going to build on that.”

Including Michigan and Florida, Clinton has 15.1 million to Obama’s 15 million — a lead of about one-half of a percentage point for Clinton. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama has 14.4 million to Clinton’s 13.9 million — a lead of about 1.7 percent for Obama. Neither total includes the primary vote total from Washington state, since it doesn’t count toward the nomination and the party awards delegates based on its caucus.

Michigan and Florida’s votes don’t count toward the delegate total that will determine who will win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. Obama said delegates are the most important factor in determining the winner.

“I guess there have been a number of different formulations that the Clinton campaign has been trying to arrive at to suggest that somehow they’re not behind,” he told reporters traveling with him Wednesday. “I’ll leave that up to you guys. If you want to count them for some abstract measure, you’re free to do so.”

The popular-vote argument is another way Clinton is trying to persuade superdelegates to support her campaign, with Obama virtually assured to end the campaign with a lead in pledged delegates. Pledged delegates are assigned based on the outcome of votes in each state, while superdelegates are elected leaders and party officials who can pick any candidate.

There are a couple other problems for Clinton in claiming the lead in the popular vote. Even using her criteria of counting Michigan and Florida, her lead may not last more than two weeks. That’s because Obama is heavily favored to win the largest state left to vote, North Carolina, on May 6.