Iran is crucial to any Iraq solution

It’s too bad Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker have to schlepp all the way from Baghdad this week to brief Congress.

We all know that their testimony will add little and change little.

President Bush won’t shift course before his term ends. Troops will draw down some, but not below pre-surge levels, and our military will remain overextended. The possibility of shaping a different Iraq policy won’t emerge until a new president is elected.

Meantime, the realities on the ground were brutally laid bare over the past two weeks by the fighting in Basra: Iraq’s security situation is better than its darkest days, but remains fragile.

Most important: The Basra affair illustrated that Iran now holds the key to stability in Iraq.

Petraeus and Crocker did not expect that their testimony would be preceded by the debacle in Basra. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki initiated a major Iraqi military operation without prior consultation with the Americans.

There had long been talk that Maliki needed to restore order to Basra, a critical oil port where Shiite militias were fighting for turf and control of oil. The Americans expected that the Iraqi premier would at some point mount a well-planned effort to curb Iran-backed militias like the Mahdi army of the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Instead, Maliki — perhaps smarting from U.S. sniping at his incompetence — gave the Americans hardly any notice before embarking on a disorganized military venture. His Iraqi forces weren’t capable of ousting the militias; more than 1,000 of his troops reportedly deserted, including top commanders; U.S. forces and airpower had to come to the rescue.

A Baghdad cease-fire by Sadr that U.S. commanders consider crucial to post-surge security gains came close to breaking.

But most galling to U.S. officials was this: when the going got tough, top Iraqi Shiite officials rushed to the holy city of Qom in Iran to get help mediating a Basra cease-fire with Sadr. As first reported by McClatchy News Service’s intrepid Baghdad bureau chief Leila Fadel, the Iraqis went to Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Qods Brigade of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. This is the group U.S. commanders accuse of training and arming radical militias.

In other words, Iraq’s leaders had to turn to an Iranian we label a “terrorist” to get Maliki and his American backers out of a jam. The commander of the Qods Brigade apparently told Sadr to cool off.

Against this background, Petraeus and Crocker will tell Congress that more time is needed for Iraqi forces and political reconciliation efforts to jell.

They will also say that a speedy pullout would lead to political collapse and a renewal of all-out fighting — not just Sunnis versus Shiites, but fighting within sects. I think they are right about the consequences of a swift withdrawal. Basra is the perfect example. When the Brits pulled out of Basra, the place collapsed as Shiite gangs warred for turf.

We don’t know whether a large U.S. troop presence can produce long-awaited political reconciliation or a functional Iraqi government. Iraqis have 10 more months to work on this conundrum before the next U.S. administration takes office. Within that time there will be provincial elections, and Maliki might even be dumped by Iraqi legislators.

We do know — as the Basra affair showed — that Iran is crucial to any Iraq solution. And here is where the next president will have an opportunity to try something different — with Iran.

Iranian officials are clearly awaiting the next American leader. I was told as much by the Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki at the Davos World Economic Forum. The United States and Iran have common interests in avoiding total chaos in Iraq (although the Iranians will continue to stir the pot, so long as they suspect Iraq is a base for U.S. efforts at regime change in Tehran).

The next White House occupant — even McCain — will have to consider this if he or she wants to prevent a U.S. military meltdown.

X Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.