Petraeus report to heat up war debate this week

Congressional hearings are set to begin Monday.

COMBINED DISPATCHES

PHILADELPHIA — For months, the stage has been set for The Report.

Consider the buildup, akin to the last days of a national political campaign: millions of dollars of advertisements in key congressional districts, base-rallying White House speeches and even a quick presidential visit to Iraq.

Gen. David H. Petraeus’ report this week on the impact of the troop “surge” in Iraq has been portrayed by both pro- and anti-war forces as a turning point that will kick off one of the all-time great debates in Congress — with war, peace and national security at stake.

Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker are scheduled to testify about the results of the U.S. military buildup and progress toward overcoming Iraq’s political disputes as congressional hearings get under way Monday.

Those hoping for a quick withdrawal — or even some September clarity — might come away from the pageantry on Capitol Hill disappointed. Iraq likely will maintain its hold on national politics for months, certainly well into the 2008 presidential campaign and perhaps beyond.

“I don’t think there’ll be dramatic change,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. “There are not many surprises left on Iraq. It’s a known quantity.”

First, analysts say, the picture remains muddy, and a closely divided Congress will face difficult and narrowly defined policy choices. The troop infusion has reduced violence in some parts of Iraq, but that military progress has not been met with hoped-for political progress toward a more unified Iraqi government.

Petraeus signaled late last week that he would recommend keeping higher troop levels deep into next year to preserve gains, but that he also would accept the January withdrawal of a brigade of about 4,000 soldiers.

“I liken us as a dog chasing a car: We don’t know what we’ll do once we catch it,” U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa., said when asked about the likely impact of the Petraeus report on congressional debate.

The former Navy three-star admiral said he hoped for a bipartisan agreement that would begin to redeploy troops, but he worried the debate might remain in the same rut.

Even as the terrain was shifting on Capitol Hill, the underlying political dynamics have not changed much, and that is a major reason analysts expect incremental change.

Public opinion

While the war is broadly unpopular, public opinion is more nuanced, polls show. Republican-leaning voters are far more supportive of President Bush’s policy than are Democrats.

“I don’t think you can understand public opinion on Iraq without the partisan breakdown: There are pockets of intense support for the president and pockets of intense opposition that don’t show up in the aggregate,” said Sarah Binder, a congressional scholar at the Brookings Institution.

That meant Republicans in Congress had little political incentive to vote for various Democratic proposals earlier this summer to impose a withdrawal timetable on the administration, she said.

In a New York Times/CBS poll of sentiment on Iraq in late July, 73 percent of Republican voters agreed that the United States “did the right thing” by going into Iraq, while just 24 percent of Democrats agreed.

“This is more than a policy difference,” Binder said. “It’s fundamentally different perceptions” of reality.

In the same vein, the poll found 57 percent of GOP voters approved of Bush’s handling of the war — to 5 percent of Democrats. Twenty-five percent approved overall.

Independents have been trending against the war, and majorities favor Congress’ setting withdrawal deadlines for U.S. troops in Iraq — which makes the political calculations trickier for congressional and presidential candidates facing voters next year.

Expectations

Last week, both the Democratic congressional leadership and Bush tried to shape expectations.

Democratic leaders said they were open to making a deal for GOP votes. Bush, on his quick visit to Iraq, said he would draw down troops if military commanders agreed.

Rep. Jim Gerlach, R-Pa., last week signed a bipartisan letter asking House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D.-Calif., and Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, to end “political infighting” and come up with a compromise.

“I think there’s a hell of a lot more consensus between rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats in the House,” said Gerlach, while leadership wants to “use the issue as a club” in 2008 congressional elections.

“People are starting to see that, and that’s why approval ratings for Congress are so darn low,” Gerlach said. “They want us to work together. ... Traveling around my district, it’s pretty clear people are frustrated with the situation in Iraq — and want us to succeed and also leave as soon as possible.”

Presidential race

Iraq has also loomed over the race for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.

Democrats have been calling to end the “unnecessary” war; the liberal activists who dominate the party’s primaries want it over with ASAP. But the candidates are also wary of falling into the 35-year-old Republican trap of being labeled national-security wimps, and have taken to saying withdrawal may take time.

The Republicans have the biggest challenge, analysts say, because the conservative base that wins primaries supports the surge, while most swing voters, who will be needed to win the White House, want the United States out of Iraq.

So last week witnessed Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sparring over who was the staunchest backer of Bush’s Iraq strategy. McCain accused Romney of being tepid because he said the surge was “apparently” working.

“The general election will probably be driven in substantial part by Iraq,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “If Iraq is still [as] unpopular then, the person who is the Republican nominee will have to ... break with the president.”