Busch hopes to keep hold on Chase berth

Kurt Busch enters tonight’s race holding the 12th and final spot in the Chase.

FONTANA, Calif. (AP) — Kurt Busch is doing his own version of scoreboard watching as NASCAR’s “regular season” winds to a close.

“This is big picture time,” Busch said. “I guess I’ve looked at just about every mathematical scenario. The bottom line is that if we are 165 (points) ahead of 13th place after Sunday night, then I think we are guaranteed a spot (in the Chase for the Nextel Cup championship).”

Busch, the 2004 Cup champion, goes into the Sharp Aquos 500 at California Speedway tonight holding down the 12th and final spot in the Chase, expanded this season from 10 to 12 drivers.

With only this event and next Saturday night’s race at Richmond before the start of the 10-race playoff, Busch — NASCAR’s hottest driver over the past two months — isn’t quite ready to breath easy yet.

But, with a 157-point edge over 13th-place Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 175 points over 14th-place Ryan Newman, his Penske Racing teammate, Busch would probably need a blowup of disastrous proportions to fall out of the Chase. More likely, he will continue to pressure the two drivers just ahead of him — Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, both within nine points.

“It really all has to do with your finish among the other cars that are around you,” Busch said. “Yet, if you just go out there and worry about your own program and shoo for a top-10 finish, that means that there is only one race left for things to go back or go right.”

First time on pole this year

Busch, who will start from the pole for the first time this season, can get a five-point bonus for leading at least one lap by just staying out front for the first lap.

Earnhardt, starting seventh, was hoping to leave Dale Earnhardt Inc., the team his late father founded, with a championship as a parting gift.

He will need a near-miracle to even get into the Chase, thanks mostly to four engine failures this season, including two in the last five races.

His only hope may be a combination of Busch having the same kind of problem Sunday, combined with a top-10 finish for Junior.

“If Kurt keeps up as he is, it will be hard for us to do anything about it,” Earnhardt said. “If he has an unfortunate engine failure or something like that, maybe we can capitalize on that.

“It would make it exciting at Richmond.”