Scientists report fewer deaths caused by natural disasters

MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

WASHINGTON — Reported deaths in natural disasters worldwide are down tenfold since the ’60s, even though the number of natural disasters is up sharply, according to Princeton University geoscientists.

The reason is better responses to floods, earthquakes, hurricanes and other environmental catastrophes, according to a paper in the October issue of Geotimes, which is published by the American Geological Institute.

What was the key to the better responses? Perhaps how democratic the afflicted country was and how rich, according to principal author Gregory E. van der Vink. He and co-researchers found, to their surprise, that a country’s level of democracy and wealth proved better predictors of death tolls in natural disasters than how catastrophic the event was or the density of population at its epicenter.

“When we look at vulnerability to disasters,” van der Vink said in an interview Wednesday, “we’re going to have to go beyond probability, magnitude and population density, and factor in the form of government and a country’s capacity to respond.” He theorizes that, generally speaking, the more accountable a government is to its people, the better the response to disasters.

The study wasn’t peer-reviewed, van der Vink noted, so its findings, while based on authoritative figures, will face further review and research.

According to David Applegate, the senior adviser for earthquake and geologic hazards at the U.S. Geological Survey, the paper “makes a strong case” that a country’s resilience in disaster is “directly related to its participatory governance.” Applegate wasn’t involved with the study.