No clear favorites have emerged in early voting states

One deciding factor for voters is a candidate’s electability.

MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Despite what many political experts, campaign officials and media outlets keep insisting, there’s no front-runner in either the Democratic or Republican race for the White House.

Huge numbers of voters in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa and New Hampshire remain undecided and, in many cases, unimpressed by major candidates.

“There’s a lot of confusion among people right now,” said Pamela Choquette, a social worker from Pittsburg, N.H. “They’re undecided.”

Voters are saying that, as in past years, they won’t make up their minds until they cast their votes at Iowa’s Jan. 3 caucuses or enter the voting booth five days later in New Hampshire.

Adding to the volatility are the rules in both states — New Hampshire lets independents vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, and Iowa’s Democratic caucus rules often prod participants to change to second or third choices.

As a result, Dennis Goldford, professor of politics at Drake University in Des Moines, summed up the mood with four terse words: “The races are fluid.”

Wayne F. Lesperance, associate professor of political science at New England College in Hennicker, N.H., finds a general consensus on what will make voters finally pick a candidate.

“At the end of the day,” he said, “electability will make the difference.”

The discomfort and unpredictability is evident in the numbers and in the chatter in the nation’s early voting states.

David Bowen, an independent voter and thus part of a huge bloc that traditionally decides New Hampshire presidential primaries at the last minute, says he has a candidate in mind. He’s always liked Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, but he’s still mot ready to commit.

Bowen, a Manchester, N.H., sports memorabilia salesman, plans to go on the local television station’s Web site, where visitors can match up issues that matter to them and see which candidate best fits their voting criteria.

“I haven’t looked at all the candidates yet,” said Bowen. “I like McCain as a Republican, but I want to finish the process and look at all the candidates.”

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center has found huge numbers of people like Bowen, still trying to grasp and then finish the process. Though its Nov. 14-18 survey of likely voters put former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney significantly ahead of the Republican pack, it also reported that only 14 percent of likely GOP voters said they have definitely made up their minds.

And, it found, while 29 percent are leaning toward a candidate, a whopping 57 percent are still undecided.

The poll saw similar trends among Democrats, as only 24 percent of that party’s voters have definitely decided on a candidate, 29 percent are leaning — and 47 percent are still looking.

An ABC News-Washington Post survey in Iowa taken during the same days found a similar bloc of voters still uncertain about their choice.

The reasons for all this instability vary, but the surveys and voter interviews suggest several factors are in play, such as the electability factor. “Think about the top Democratic candidates,” said Andrew E. Smith, New Hampshire poll director. “They’re all about evenly liked by voters. They’re all about the same on the issues.”

Also, forty-three percent of New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, meaning they can vote in either primary. They’re historically unpredictable.