Bird flu: Will we be ready for it?

An influenza pandemic is ‘a chilling potential scenario,’ a doctor says.

By PETER H. MILLIKEN

VINDICATOR STAFF WRITER

YOUNGSTOWN — Local officials are expressing grave concerns about the adequacy of the vaccine supply and distribution if this area experiences a major influenza epidemic.

“This is a chilling potential scenario, and we hope it stays a potential scenario,” said Dr. Lawrence Frisch, medical director of the Mahoning County Board of Health.

“God forbid if that came to our shores, and it ended up here, spreading feverishly through our hospitals or our community,” Anthony Traficanti, chairman of the Mahoning County commissioners, said of the prospect of a bird flu epidemic.

Traficanti and his fellow commissioner, David Ludt, queried Dr. Frisch at a recent commissioners’ meeting about the source, adequacy of supply, accessibility and procurement of the vaccine if it were needed here in an emergency.

“This virus is not spreading catastrophically yet,” Dr. Frisch said.

The issues

While some European countries are producing and stockpiling large amounts of flu vaccine and medication, the fiscally conservative U.S. government plan “calls for only producing a few million doses [of bird flu vaccine], and ramping production up if we get hit,” with an epidemic, Dr. Frisch said.

Key issues are how quickly vaccine production can be accelerated and “how many lives will be lost while we’re ramping up?,” he said.

Researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control are working “feverishly” to determine the vaccine’s shelf life and minimum effective dose, he said.

“Somebody probably knows, but nobody’s saying how much vaccine we have,” Dr. Frisch said. “The federal government stockpiles a whole series of medical supplies related to infectious disease disasters.”

The plan

However, Walter Duzzny, county emergency management agency director, said stockpile locations aren’t publicly disclosed because of the potential for a black market. “When we get the call, we’ll ramp up and go get them and bring them in,” he said of local authorities.

If the epidemic is regional or national, the vaccine will be flown to Columbus and trucked here, Dr. Frisch said. If it’s local, the vaccine will be flown here, he added.

Initially, scarce vaccine supplies would be rationed, with first priority vaccinations given to medical personnel and emergency responders, Dr. Frisch said.

“There are going to be an awful lot of people who don’t fit on that short list, including some of the folks in this room,” he explained. “Your tools are going to be really limited for the first few months.”

In subsequent months, more vaccine will be produced, he said.

Getting ready

“It’s things like our medical reserve corps that will, at least, give us a fighting chance to respond to this, if not with success, at least with dignity,” he added.