Bush's Iraq policy influenced by crises

By WILLIAM McKENZIE
DALLAS MORNING NEWS
There have been four crises in George W. Bush's life, the kind that we all run into at some point and that determine the course of our lives. However we come to them, we either own up to them, or we back off and fail to appreciate what it means to struggle in life.
We may not overcome all tests, but we at least have to wrestle them as Jacob did his angel.
From what I can tell, Bush's first such moment was his sister's death when he was 7. They had been running buddies in Midland, Texas, before the Bush family grew to five kids. Bush biographers note that he coped with the leukemia that took her life and the mourning that followed by developing the joking, friendly side he still uses to put others at ease.
The Washington Post reported last fall about how a woman who had lost her husband in Afghanistan met with Bush in Maine. She was prepared to dislike him but found him surprisingly comforting, despite her anger at him and the war.
His easy manner evidently grew out of early loss, when he tried to comfort his family, particularly his mother, with whom he was so close.
The second pivotal event was his struggle with alcohol and the challenge it put before him. At age 40, Bush was energetic about his oil career but also a good-time guy with a lot of swagger. And mostly he was going nowhere, except toward jeopardizing his marriage and his father's 1988 presidential bid.
Facing those consequences, he stopped drinking cold turkey, although the process built over time. Eventually, he felt the tap of God's hand on his shoulder and responded to find greater purpose. The transformation didn't make him presidential timber, but he became a person who could entertain the idea of being president.
The third event was Sept. 11, 2001. You may recall that his presidency had been drifting that summer, and some, including me, wondered whether he had become too disengaged, maybe even depressed.
Then came the attacks on New York and Washington and what even his critics describe as a rallying of the world against terrorism. Those next months probably will go down as his best as president.
Iraq mess
Today, Bush remains enmeshed in his fourth crisis, which, like his alcoholism, is self-generated. And that is this Iraq mess.
No one knows what it will look like in 10 or 20 years. But it is of Bush's doing and the faulty advice he got from Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld and other eager warriors who let their president down.
At this point, the war's political, military and financial costs outweigh the benefits of deposing Saddam Hussein, whom we could have contained. But now that we're there, pulling out would be horrendous.
Al-Qaida could use U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as it used Afghanistan after the Soviets left. Shiites in Baghdad and Tehran would control valuable oil fields. And the Saudis, among others, could insert themselves into the ensuing civil war to protect Iraqi Sunnis.
From Bush's perspective, the worst part is that he has lost credibility with most Americans on the issue. How does he regain that?
Results are the only way.
We know he has outlined a new strategy, which shows promise if the fledgling Iraq government supplies enough troops. The tactic of dividing Baghdad into nine zones and putting more soldiers in each could help a combined U.S.-Iraqi force "hold" neighborhoods that we secure.
What's odd is that Bush is not following the Baker-Hamilton group advice and mounting a big-deal diplomatic effort with Iran and Syria. Why not exploit apparent high-level dissension within Iran over its nuclear program with a bargain of some sort on Iraq?
Diplomacy is not a virtue of itself, but it can help us promote our own interests, and it would be one more tool Bush could use to wrestle this beast to the ground.
His first two crises were internal battles. Iraq and 9/11 are external ones. His sister's death probably was the most painful. But Iraq is the most complex, because so many moving parts are out of his control.
What we know from his past handling of crises is that he won't back away from this challenge until the last moment of his presidency.
William McKenzie is an editorial columnist for The Dallas Morning News. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.