Calderon should take on Chavez

When President Bush visits Mexico next month, the top question in his mind is likely to be whether President Felipe Calderon will become the Latin American leader who can counter Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's growing influence in the region.
As of now, virtually all other presidents in the region have declined that role. Most are being silenced by oil-rich Venezuela's checkbook diplomacy, or are simply cowed by Chavez's strategy of accusing any leader who defends democracy and free markets of intervening in other countries' affairs, even if the Venezuelan president lashes out daily against his neighbors' free-trade agreements and U.S. imperialism.
Right now, Chavez seems to have the monopoly on Latin America's headlines. New York University professor Patricio Navia notes that while recent elections in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and other countries were won by the most pro-globalization candidate, nobody is consistently countering Chavez's daily anti-globalization tirades.
"Latin America is waiting for a spokesman for market-friendly policies," Navia told me recently. "Of all possible candidates, only Mexico's Felipe Calderon is in a position to assume that role."
Calderon may become a regional leader by default, Navia says. Brazil's President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva cannot afford to antagonize his leftist constituency at home by openly squabbling with Chavez.
Argentine bonds
Argentine President Nestor Kirchner is hoping Venezuela will buy an additional 2 billion of Argentine bonds, on top of the 3.5 billion it has already purchased. Colombia's Alvaro Uribe is too bogged down in his country's armed conflict, and Chile's President Michele Bachelet is not showing much will to become a regional leader.
Costa Rican President and Nobel Laureate Oscar Arias has spoken out against radical populism, but his country is too small to make a big splash in the region.
Will Calderon carry the torch? On Jan. 26, Calderon noted that, unlike countries such as Venezuela, Mexico welcomes foreign investments.
When Chavez predictably replied by calling Calderon a "caballerito" (little man) "subordinated to imperialism and world capitalism," Calderon rightly responded that countries should openly debate political issues "without incurring personal attacks." His implicit message: If Chavez is entitled to speak his mind daily on world events, so am I.
But on his return home, Calderon was criticized by former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, as well as by the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party and leftist Party for the Democratic Revolution. Opposition legislators threatened to block Calderon's ambassadorial appointments if the government doesn't try to rebuild ties with Venezuela and Cuba.
In an effort to appease critics, Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa testified at a congressional hearing Tuesday that Mexico will seek better ties with all Latin American countries, with no exceptions.
Will Calderon lead the fight against Chavez's narcissist-Leninist model? People very close to the Mexican president tell me that he will continue speaking out for democracy, foreign investments and globalization, while trying to "put these issues in a compartment" that does not contaminate relations with the rest of Latin America, especially Central America.
Market-friendly leader
My opinion: Calderon has much more to gain by emerging as a market-friendly regional leader than by cowing to former President Salinas and Mexico's old-guard politicians. Speaking out allows Calderon to put Mexico on the map, presenting his country to U.S., European and Chinese capitalists as a good investment opportunity, while shutting up is not likely to result in any meaningful opposition concessions at home.
As for the risk of being labeled a U.S. stooge by Chavez, Calderon shouldn't lose any sleep. Mexico caused the Bush administration's biggest diplomatic defeat ever when it voted, alongside Chile, against Bush's ill-conceived plan to invade Iraq at the U.N. Security Council in 2003.
And according to State Department statistics, during the last U.N. General Assembly Mexico voted 62 times in opposition to Washington, and 19 times with it. That likely shows a much greater foreign policy independence than, say, Venezuela's from Cuba.
Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.