Time will tell if U.S. gambit worked in North Korean talks

When President Bush refused to enter into bilateral talks with North Korea, critics accused him of being stubborn and inconsistent. This is an administration that thrived on unilateral action in most of its world dealings -- the United States was in its view the world's only superpower -- and for the administration to say that it couldn't talk with North Korea unless China, South Korea, Japan and Russia were at the table too seemed out of character.
Now that the administration has announced the success of the six-party talks with an agreement reached in Beijing on Tuesday, the old critics are taking a wait-and-see attitude, while a batch of new critics, most of them conservative former supporters, are saying the latest deal is either no deal at all, or a very bad deal indeed.
The White House was quick to respond to its critics, maintaining that the six-party agreement is a good one, and that North Korea will get no benefits unless it abides by the terms.
It won't take long to find out how good a deal this is. Under the first phase of the agreement, North Korea is to shut down its main nuclear reactor and allow U.N. inspectors back into the country within 60 days. In return, it would receive aid equal to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil from the other five countries participating in the talks.
Discouraging sign
Pyongyang has reneged on agreements before, and barely hours after the pact, the state-run North Korean media was calling the shutdown and sealing of its main nuclear reactor and the dismantling of its nuclear-weapons program only a "temporary suspension."
North Korea reneged on the 1994 nonproliferation agreement it reached with the Clinton administration, which is what led the Bush administration to take its hard line against one-on-one talks. This time, North Korea would not only be cheating on the United States, but also on South Korea, Japan, Russia and its biggest supporter, China.
Perhaps the consequences of turning on his neighbors and benefactors will be enough to make Kim Jong Il a man of his word. If so, President Bush will get obvious diplomatic bragging rights.
On the other hand, Russia and China have shown themselves to be very ready to forgive North Korea its past transgressions. Those countries refused to support U.S. calls for U.N. sanctions last fall after North Korea announced that it had detonated a nuclear device.
After North Korea shuts down its main nuclear reactor and receives its down payment of 50,000 tons of fuel oil, it is to account for and dismantle all of its other nuclear facilities. For that, it will get an additional 950,000 tons of fuel.
The United States and Japan have agreed to start talks on establishing diplomatic relations at that point. And the United States will begin the process of removing North Korea from its designation as a terror-sponsoring state.
This is an opportunity for North Korea to begin a transition from a nuclear outlaw to a functioning member of the world community. It is also an opportunity for a failing bastion of communist ideology to get fuel and food that its cold and starving people need to survive.
If Kim Jong Il reneges on this agreement, he will have betrayed his own people in a way that only a mad dictator could.