MCCLATCHY-MSNBC POLL

MCCLATCHY-MSNBC POLL

Some details

The McClatchy-MSNBC Poll is a snapshot of voter opinion at the time it was conducted. It isn’t a prediction of how people will vote on Election Day.

The Mason-Dixon poll of 400 likely Democratic caucus attendees and 400 likely Republican caucus attendees in Iowa was conducted by telephone from Dec. 26-28. Those interviewed were selected by a random variation of telephone numbers from a cross section of telephone exchanges. That means that anyone in the state with a phone line had the same odds of being called as anyone else, except for people who use cell phones only. Cell phone numbers are not in the exchanges.

The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. That means that 95 percent of the time, the correct numbers could be as many as 5 percentage points above the poll’s percentage point findings, or as many as 5 percentage points below them. The remaining 5 percent of the time, the correct numbers could vary even more.

The sampling margin of error doesn’t include other variables that could affect results, including the way questions are worded or the order in which they’re asked.