Edwards surges as Huckabee’s bubble bursts
Twenty percent of Iowa Democrats say they still might change their minds.
MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS
DES MOINES, Iowa — John Edwards has clawed his way into contention to win Iowa’s caucuses on Thursday in the first vote for the Democratic presidential nomination, gaining strength even as rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have lost ground, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.
At the same time, Mitt Romney has regained the lead among Iowa Republicans as Mike Huckabee has lost momentum and support, even among the evangelical Christians who had propelled him into the top spot just weeks ago.
Taken together, this first poll in Iowa since campaigning resumed after a Christmas break showed a dead-heat contest between the three leading Democratic candidates and a volatile clash between the two top Republican rivals here.
“On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit.”
The new survey, taken Dec. 26-28, came three weeks after the initial Dec. 3-6 poll.
On the Republican side, Coker said, “Romney has rebounded and the Huckabee bubble may have burst.
“Last time, Huckabee was getting all the good press and nobody had put him under any scrutiny. ... Now he’s under the spotlight, and he’s started to wilt a little.”
Among Democrats:
•Former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina has the support of 24 percent;
•Sen. Clinton of New York has 23 percent;
•Sen. Obama of Illinois has 22 percent;
•Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has 12 percent;
•Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware has 8 percent;
•Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has 2 percent;
•Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio has 1 percent.
•Undecided: 8 percent.
One in five Iowa Democrats say they could still change their minds. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus five percentage points.
While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He’s gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.
Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.
The second tier is particularly important in Iowa’s Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don’t make that threshold can support someone else.
As of now, that appears to help Edwards.
If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.
Edwards, pushing a people-versus-the powerful message, owes his gains to voters looking for a general election winner, someone who agrees with them on the issues, and those who rank Iraq their top concern. Key demographic slices for him include men and union members.
Among Republicans:
•Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney has 27 percent;
•Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee has 23 percent;
•Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has 14 percent;
•Sen. John McCain of Arizona has 13 percent;
•Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 5 percent;
•Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has 5 percent;
•Rep. Duncan Hunter of California has 1 percent.
•Undecided: 12 percent.
One in three Iowa Republicans say they could still change their minds.
No one knows that better than Huckabee, who surged into the lead three weeks ago and now has lost it just as quickly. Huckabee’s support dropped 8 percentage points since the last McClatchy/MSNBC poll Dec. 3-6.
A major reason why is that he’s come under sharp criticism from rivals such as Romney, been blistered as a tax raiser in a $500,000 ad campaign aired by the anti-tax group Club For Growth, and faced new scrutiny by the media of his Arkansas record on such issues as pardons.