Even a flawed intel report offers U.S. new perspective

Even a flawed intel report
offers U.S. new perspective

There are various ways of looking at the latest National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities (two of them appearing elsewhere on this page), but the overwhelming response should be one of thankfulness.

Thanks should be given, not because it is crystal clear that Iran has no nuclear ambitions (surely it does) or because anyone can feel confident that we know more in 2007 about what Iran has been doing to develop nuclear weapons than we knew in 2005. The reason to be thankful is that now President Bush has an excellent reason to back off from his saber rattling against Iran. Unfortunately, he hasn’t yet availed himself of that opportunity, but perhaps he will yet.

The president, and even more so Vice President Dick Cheney, have been making references to the presumed prerogative of military action by the United States against Iran for most of this year. Last March, Cheney said the United States was “keeping all options on the table” and warned that Iran faced “meaningful consequences” if it didn’t shut down its nuclear weapons program. Two months ago, Bush made his famous reference to World War III while talking about the possible consequences of allowing Iran to join the still relatively small club of nuclear nations.

Listen to Teddy

Such talk has been, is and will continue to be counter-productive. For one thing, it is the antithesis of President Theodore Roosevelt’s advice, to “speak softly and carry a big stick.”

The president and Cheney are speaking loudly, but they know that they have very few sticks in their arsenal.

Certainly the U.S. military is not equipped to conduct ground operations in Iran. The troop surge in Iraq, which is credited with reducing violence, especially in Baghdad, has stretched the armed forces as far as they can be stretched. While the president and the Democratic Congress wage a war of words over tying expenditures to troop withdrawal dates, the simple truth is that troop levels will begin dropping in coming months. They will be well below today’s levels by next summer because there won’t be enough rested and combat-ready troops to maintain anything approaching present levels.

A shock-and-awe air assault against Iranians targets is equally untenable. It would enrage much of the rest of the world against the U.S., which is already essentially on its own in Iraq. It would embolden fanatics to launch terrorist attacks against U.S. targets. Iran could pursue a number of strategies that would have potentially catastrophic effects on oil markets. And it would guarantee that Iran would take a more active role in equipping insurgents in Iraq and fomenting violence there.

Unless President Bush is prepared to layout to the American people how he intends to man, equip and finance the U.S. military force that would b e necessary in the wake of any type of military action taken against Iran, he has only one option. And that is to pursue diplomatic options.

The NIE report gives the president the political cover he needs to do just that. He should use it.