Report: Leaders in Iraq unable to govern well

The political situation in Baghdad is expected to get worse.

LOS ANGELES TIMES

WASHINGTON — The Iraqi government is likely to become even more precarious over the next six months, even though President Bush’s decision to send more troops has delivered “measurable” improvements in security, U.S. intelligence agencies concluded in an assessment of the situation in Iraq released Thursday .

“There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation” since the U.S. troop “surge” began this year, according to a document that represents the consensus of all 16 U.S. spy agencies. Even so, the report concludes, the level of violence in Iraq “remains high” and “Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively.”

The document, an update of a National Intelligence Estimate delivered earlier this year, represents the first comprehensive status report on the situation in Iraq since the troop increase and comes one month before a major assessment of the U.S. military commitment is due from Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. military commander in Iraq.

Though cautiously worded and replete with caveats, the estimate presents a stark conclusion. Even though the troop increase has given the Iraqi government more breathing room, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other leaders appear no closer to achieving the sort of political reconciliation necessary to keep the country from disintegrating.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said the report confirmed that “our troops are mired in an Iraqi civil war and the president’s escalation strategy has failed to produce the political results he promised to our troops and the American people.”

“Every day that we continue to stick to the president’s flawed strategy is a day that America is not as secure as it could be,” Reid said.

Summary released

Much of the document, titled “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive,” remains classified. But the nation’s intelligence director, J. Michael McConnell, decided to release a four-page summary of the document’s key judgments.

Intelligence officials said the document was produced at the request of Congress and the National Security Council, and that its release was timed so that its findings could be considered by military officials and others working on progress reports due in September .

The four-page summary concludes that “the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months,” a crucial period because military experts believe the surge cannot be sustained beyond that time period without causing a serious degradation to the capabilities of U.S. forces.

If the surge continues, “Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.”

Al-Maliki lashed out at U.S. criticism, saying this week that his country “can find friends elsewhere.”