South Carolina moves primary to Jan. 19, 2008

The decision means that New Hampshire will move its
primary to at least Jan. 12.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voting for the 2008 presidential race could begin in ... 2007?

Unbelievable, but true.

That’s one potential scenario in the fallout from South Carolina Republicans’ decision Thursday to hold their presidential primary earlier than planned — on Jan. 19 of next year.

Given that change, New Hampshire will be forced to move its primary to at least Jan. 12 under a state law that requires it to protect its first-in-the-nation primary status.

Should that occur, Iowa then would have to, according to its law, shift its leadoff caucuses as well. To avoid the holiday crunch, it’s possible Iowa could choose a mid-December date.

“Not only is this unprecedented, what’s also unprecedented is the number of journalists who could spend Thanksgiving in Iowa and Christmas in New Hampshire,” said Ken Mehlman, a former Republican National Committee chairman and President Bush’s 2004 campaign manager.

Iowa left little doubt it would do whatever necessary to ensure it kicks off the nominating process as it has for three decades.

Said Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat: “Iowa will go first, that is the bottom line.”

South Carolina’s move — and the expected aftershocks in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early voting states — is the latest chapter in the extraordinary movement in the presidential primary calendar for Republicans and Democrats as states such as California and New York jockey for more power in choosing the party nominees.

The ever-changing contest schedule — and the earlier start to the balloting — has created an enormous level of discomfort for national parties trying to impose discipline on the states as well as presidential campaigns trying to figure out strategies when voting could begin in just four months.

As a deterrence, both national party committees insist they will penalize states that schedule nominating contests before Feb. 5 by withholding half of their delegates to the conventions next summer.

But that threat has largely been ignored. States assume that, as in past elections, whoever the party nominates will take over the national committees before the conventions and won’t enforce the penalty.