SUMMER DRIVING Gas expected to average 2.81 a gallon

Gasoline prices are expected to peak in May.
DENVER (AP) -- Uncertainty about refinery capacity in spots such as Nigeria and Venezuela could lead to higher gasoline prices for U.S. consumers this summer, federal energy officials said Tuesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration -- the statistical arm of the Energy Department -- expects average gasoline prices of 2.81 a gallon this summer, down from 2.84 last summer, although prices could vary widely among states and from month to month. The outlook forecasts a peak in the average price at 2.87 in May.
Those prices are already showing up at the pump, though, after refinery problems and unrest abroad. Energy Administrator Guy Caruso said the forecast for the summer should still hold.
The administration's prediction of gas prices this summer was based on projected refinery capacity, rising demand for gas, slightly lower imports and less gas on hand.
Caruso said inventories are about 7 million barrels below normal going into the summer driving season.
The outlook depends in part on average U.S. refinery utilization rates of 94 percent, up from 92 percent last summer. Caruso said there was some risk in this.
"It's doable. We've done it before," Caruso said. "Whenever you're stressing your system and pushing it that hard, clearly there is risk."
If that rate can't be maintained and imports aren't available, gas prices would likely rise.
Pressure on refineries
That also puts extra pressure on U.S. refineries in case of natural disasters such as hurricanes or unrest in oil-exporting countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran or Iraq.
"In the past, imports have been our savior," Caruso said.
Average gasoline consumption from April through September is about 9.5 million barrels per day, and of that, 1.1 million typically comes from imports.
An encouraging note is that spare capacity is ramping up closer to historic norms, Caruso said.
Caruso spoke at the Summer Energy Outlook Conference, sponsored by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability and the National Conference of State Legislatures.