Ohio St. awaits shakeout

Shaking out the remainder of the college football season, and just who will be lining up against Ohio State in Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 8:
Big East -- out. Rutgers beat Louisville, which beat West Virginia. Then Rutgers got crushed by Cincinnati. Regardless of what happens between WVU and Rutgers Saturday night, that 30-11 beat down by the Bearcats exposed the conference. Incredibly, one of the BCS computer rankings, Kenneth Massey's, actually ranked the Big East ahead of the Big Ten before last weekend's games. Which should be argument No. 1 for booting the computers out of the BCS equation.
The survivor of the Southeastern Conference. Right now it comes down to Arkansas or Florida. We can make arguments against both teams. Florida's only loss was at Auburn, which lost to Arkansas. The Razorbacks (like Florida, sporting a 10-1 record), lost by 36 points at home to Southern California. Arkansas still has LSU (9-2) at home Saturday, while the Gators visit Florida State (6-5). And there's the conference championship game at the Georgia Dome Dec. 2. The winner of that game, assuming it still has one loss, would make a compelling argument to be in the title game. Arkansas, though, should be rooting for Notre Dame this weekend.
Next up,the Fighting Irish
Which brings us to:
Notre Dame. Now that the Irish have weathered that less than difficult stretch of North Carolina and the three service academies, the Irish have the game that will make or break their season, at Southern Cal Saturday night. Just as in the SEC, this loser of this game is out of the picture and the winner gets to make its case for the championship game. What hurts Notre Dame's chances the most is that 26-point whacking by Michigan in September.
So, what if Southern Cal beats Notre Dame Saturday night? The Trojans' detractors will point to a two-point loss at Oregon State in late October, but every one-loss team in the field has a wart. Southern Cal's is less noticeable than, say, Notre Dame or Arkansas. It's a simple formula for the Trojans, beat Notre Dame and UCLA, and root for Arkansas in the SEC championship game. (It's a simple formula, just not an easy one.)
And that leaves us with:
Michigan. Losing by only three to the acknowledged best team in the country Saturday night did wonders for the Wolverines' supporters who claim they are still the second-best. Most of the pollsters and all but one of the BCS computers agree. Here's why Michigan doesn't deserve a rematch: It had its chance.
You wanted a playoff,here it is
Those who argue for a I-A playoff should watch the next two weekends closely, because that's what we're going to get.
Notre Dame-Southern Cal is a knockout game; so is Arkansas-Florida.
Arkansas shouldn't be ranked ahead of USC and Notre Dame shouldn't leapfrog Michigan because of those September blowouts.
You must judge the whole body of work, i.e., the entire schedule. A loss in September should count as much as one in November.
A second reason Michigan shouldn't get the invite: The Wolverines didn't win their conference. Yeah, I know that's not a rule; it's been discussed and rejected.
However, there's still a chance for Michigan to get the rematch. Here's what has to happen: Arkansas beats Florida and USC loses to either Notre Dame or UCLA. (If Florida wins the SEC, the Gators make the only compelling argument to supplant Michigan, based on the generally-agreed principle that the SEC is the best overall conference this season).
Southern California holds all of this together; if the Trojans win out I expect to see them in Glendale. Any other scenario, I believe, makes it virtually impossible to exclude Michigan.
Rob Todor is sports editor of The Vindicator. Write to him at todor@vindy.com.