Prospects of state candidates analyzed

Marc Dann faces an uphill battle, but Ted Strickland has a good chance to win, political scientists say.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- Before his convincing victory in last week's Democratic primary for attorney general, state Sen. Marc Dann said raising money for his campaign was a challenge.
But after getting 71 percent of the vote, Dann, of Liberty, is finding that aspect of running a statewide campaign easier.
"People are returning my calls, and I've also received several unsolicited contributions in the past few days," he said.
Dann has raised about $600,000 so far in his quest to obtain $3 million, the amount he believes is needed to be competitive with Auditor Betty Montgomery, the Republican nominee for attorney general. Montgomery is expected to raise about $5 million for the race.
Political science professors say among Democratic candidates, Dann faces the toughest task because of Montgomery's strong statewide name recognition.
"What Marc Dann needs to do is raise a lot of money," said Paul Sracic, a Youngstown State University political science professor. "It's a Catch-22. He won't get money without polls showing the race is competitive, and polls won't show the race is competitive if he doesn't have the money to get his name and message out."
If there is a strong anti-Republican sentiment because of recent scandals on the GOP's watch, Dann could be swept into office with other Democrats in November, Sracic said.
Needs lots of money
Dann needs to raise a "boatload" of money to compete with Montgomery, said Melanie Blumberg, a California University (Pa.) political science associate professor who lives in Boardman and closely follows Mahoning Valley politics.
Dann needs to attack Montgomery, Blumberg said, for switching political offices -- she served eight years as attorney general, ran for auditor in 2002 because she couldn't seek re-election under the state term-limits law, planned to run for governor, but withdrew from the race and ran for attorney general.
Also, Dann needs the Ohio Bureau of Workers' Compensation "Coingate" scandal to be back in the news, said William Binning, chairman of the YSU political science department. Dann was the Democrats' point man on the issue. The trial of coin dealer Tom Noe, a major GOP contributor at the heart of the scandal, is set to start in August, three months before the general election.
Dann said political musical chairs and Montgomery's ties to Noe will be cornerstones of his campaign.
"It's a long shot, but it's doable," Binning said of a Dann win. "If the Republican ticket collapses, Montgomery has the best chance of surviving, but Dann can win."
John Green, director of the University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, said Montgomery is the strongest Republican on the November ticket, and Dann "faces an uphill battle."
Better outlook for Strickland
The political science professors said U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland, a Lisbon Democrat running for governor against Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, a Cincinnati Republican, stands a strong chance of winning.
Dann has lived most of his life in the Mahoning Valley while Strickland moved here in 2003. The last Valley resident to hold an elected statewide office was William J. Brown, a Mahoning County Democrat, who served as attorney general from 1971 to 1983.
Blackwell is a staunch conservative who could potentially turn off moderate Republican voters, Sracic said. If that happens, Strickland will win and his victory could help the rest of the Democratic ticket, Sracic said.
Binning said Strickland "looks very formidable" in the general election and has raised a lot of money.
But even with the primary win, Strickland needs to increase his statewide name recognition, Green said.
Bitter GOP primary race
Blackwell's Republican primary against Attorney General Jim Petro was a bitter and personal one.
"Blackwell needs to be backed by the entire Republican Party, and that's going to be a challenge," Blumberg said. "It's Strickland's to lose right now, particularly with the problems with Republicans on the statewide level and with how bad President Bush is doing in the polls. People may be looking for a change and vote out Republicans."
This is probably going to be the most expensive gubernatorial race in the state's history, the professors say.
Historic victory
They were eager to talk about state Sen. Charlie Wilson's historic victory as a write-in candidate in the Democratic primary for the 6th Congressional District. Wilson won all 12 counties in the district, receiving 66.4 percent of the vote, against two lesser-known and underfunded candidates.
Wilson, of St. Clairsville, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $1 million, much on direct mail and television commercials that focused on how to write Wilson's name on the ballot. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent more than $500,000 on ads attempting to discredit Wilson.
Blumberg said the DCCC did an "absolutely outstanding job" on the campaign, noting she received 10 to 15 mailings in the last two weeks of the campaign from the DCCC mostly on the write-in process.
Wilson became only the fifth candidate to win a congressional primary as a write-in and the first to do so against two opponents. Wilson's name wasn't on the primary ballot after he failed to get 50 valid signatures on his nominating petitions.
"It will go down in history," said Adrienne Elrod, a DCCC spokeswoman. "Political science students will study this race for years to come."
Ed Patru, an NRCC spokesman, called Wilson "ethically challenged."
"One-third of Democrats voted against him and for two opponents who ran campaigns equivalent to high school student council races," Patru said. "Charlie Wilson hasn't had all his dirty laundry aired yet."
Blasdel faces tough race
In the Republican primary, state Rep. Chuck Blasdel of East Liverpool easily defeated three opponents, getting 48.8 percent of the vote. Blasdel won nine of the 12 counties and spent about $100,000 during the low-key primary.
Sracic said Wilson's name recognition is exceptionally strong in the district, and Blasdel should be concerned about the general election. The race between Blasdel and Wilson is considered one of the most competitive congressional races in the country.
"We could find in the coming months that this is not even a close race" because of Wilson's victory and increased name recognition, Sracic said.
Binning said the 6th is still one of the most competitive congressional races. Wilson's momentum will cool off in the summer, but Blasdel "has a lot of catching up to do," Binning said.
As for Blasdel's failure to get 50 percent of the primary vote, Binning said there was no campaign and Blasdel received more than twice the amount of votes as the second-place finisher.
But Elrod said Blasdel's failure to get 50 percent shows he isn't a strong candidate.
Patru said that the NRCC is very committed to Blasdel in this race, and strongly believes he will beat Wilson in November.
skolnick@vindy.com