Valleys' census numbers decrease

Trumbull County lost the most, and Youngstown actually gained residents.
By DAVID SKOLNICK
VINDICATOR POLITICS WRITER
YOUNGSTOWN -- About 12,000 fewer people lived in the five-county Mahoning and Shenango valleys on July 1, 2005, compared with five years earlier, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
That's a 1.5 percent population decline over the five-year period in Mahoning, Trumbull and Columbiana counties in Ohio and Mercer and Lawrence counties in Pennsylvania.
Each county saw population declines during those five years, with Trumbull leading the way with the loss of 5,691 residents, a 2.5 percent drop.
Mahoning lost 2,800 residents, a 1.1 percent population decline during the five-year period. Columbiana County also saw a 1.1 percent decline as it lost 1,196 from its population.
Lawrence, the smallest of the five counties in terms of population, saw a 1.9 percent decline in residents. It lost 1,816 from its population over the five years.
Mercer County's loss of 595 residents was minimal; the decline equates to less than half of 1 percent.
There is no end in sight for the slow population decline in the five counties, said Thomas Finnerty, associate director of Youngstown State University's Center for Urban and Regional Studies. Because of limited job opportunities in the area, younger, educated people are leaving the five counties after they earn college degrees, Finnerty said.
Not only does that cause an immediate population decline, but it causes future declines because those young people eventually have and rear children in other counties, he said.
"The economy causes people to leave and doesn't attract people to relocate to this area," Finnerty said. "There's been some improvement with the local job market, but not enough to stop the population decline."
Not everything decreased
While the five counties saw relatively small population declines over the past five years, their states experienced increases in the number of residents.
Ohio's population increased by about 9 percent and Pennsylvania saw an increase of close to 12 percent between July 1, 2000, and July 1, 2005, according to the Census Bureau.
There were a few bright spots for local communities, including Youngstown.
Between the 1990 census and the 2000 census, Youngstown's population declined by 14.3 percent. That was the largest population percentage decline of any city in Ohio, and among the highest in the nation.
But census statistics show that Youngstown's population increased by 1,109 people, or 1.4 percent, between July 1, 2000, and July 1, 2005.
There were 82,836 people in Youngstown on July 1, 2005, compared with 81,727 in 2000. That number was 78,625 in 2003, according to census statistics.
The 2005 figure is 1,070 fewer than the number of Youngstown residents in 2004.
How the calculations work
When the Census Bureau released its estimated 2004 population count of Youngstown residents in June 2005, the figure was off-base. That number was 77,713, but an updated figure just released states there were 83,906 Youngstown residents in 2004.
The bureau determines the annual population estimates primarily on building permit data and birth and death certificates, said Greg Harper, a demographer for the federal agency. The bureau receives updated and more accurate information each year, leading to changes, typically minor ones, to population estimates from previous years, Harper said.
Also, Harper said inmates are counted as residents of the city in which a prison or jail is located. The Northeast Ohio Correctional Center reopened a private prison in Youngstown in late 2004 with more than 1,000 inmates.
Ups and downs
Communities in Mahoning County seeing the largest population declines between 2000 and 2005 include Boardman, Austintown, Sebring and the city of Canfield.
The city of Warren saw its population decline from 48,146 in 2000 to 45,796 in 2005, the largest drop in Trumbull County.
Small declines in population in Trumbull between 2000 and 2005 occurred in Niles, Hubbard city and township, Girard, Cortland, Brookfield, Warren Township, Howland, Champion, Liberty, Lordstown, McDonald and Bazetta.
A number of rural communities in Mahoning and Trumbull had minor population increases over the five years including Beaver, Berlin, Coitsville, Ellsworth, Goshen, Green, Jackson, Milton, Smith and Springfield in Mahoning, and Bloomfield, Braceville, Bristol, Farmington, Fowler, Greene, Gustavus, Hartford, Johnston, Kinsman, Mesopotamia and Vernon in Trumbull.
Even with the overall declines, Mahoning and Trumbull remain the state's 10th and 12th most populous counties in Ohio. The state has 88 counties. Among the state's 12 most populous counties, seven saw population declines over the five years.
In Columbiana County, East Liverpool had the largest population decline, 671 people, over the five years. East Palestine, Salem and Lisbon experienced minor population declines, with Salem leading that group with a loss of 392 residents over the five-year period.
Among communities in that county with gains were Columbiana, Leetonia and Elkrun, although none saw its population grow by even 200 residents over the five years.
Mercer County's population went down by 595 people between 2000 and 2005, even though Sharon's population dropped by 770, and other communities -- including Sharpsville, West Middlesex, Farrell, Grove City and Mercer -- also experienced declines.
Hermitage took over in 2004 as the county's most populous community, overtaking Sharon, and continued to grow last year. Hermitage's population in 2005 was 16,571, compared with 16,212 in 2000.
Smaller communities in Mercer, including Wilmington, Pine, Lake and New Vernon, saw modest population increases.
New Castle continues to lose residents, but remains the only community in Lawrence County with a five-figure population. New Castle's 2005 population is 25,030, down from 26,255 in 2000, according to the Census Bureau.
Other Lawrence County communities losing population include Ellwood City, Bessemer and Pulaski. Neshannock saw a population increase of 187 over the five-year period.
skolnick@vindy.com