Experts disagree with plan for pike

The experts said Blackwell's figures will work only if tolls are increased.
CLEVELAND (AP) -- Economists who reviewed a plan by Ohio gubernatorial candidate Kenneth Blackwell to lease the Ohio Turnpike to private operators estimate it would raise only half the money he predicts, a newspaper reported Sunday.
Blackwell, the Republican secretary of state, announced his idea to raise $4 billion to $6 billion by leasing out the 241-mile toll road in January but detailed the plan and how to spend the money in his new book, "Rebuilding America." He points to states such as Illinois and Indiana that made money by taking their toll roads private.
"There is an emerging market appetite for this type of investment," Blackwell said. "It's time for Ohio to get on board."
The Plain Dealer asked an economic development expert and a financial analyst to review the plan, Ohio Turnpike Commission financial reports and the experiences of other states. They estimated the lease could raise closer to $2 billion to $3 billion, saying Blackwell's estimate is not likely to be supported in the market unless tolls go up.
Congressman Ted Strickland, the Democrat running for governor, said he wants details about the financing and how the money would be put in trusts to support economic development.
"Obviously, we should take a look at everything on the table and see if it has merit," he said.
About the tolls
The Turnpike Commission says it's neutral but noted that Indiana officials predicted tolls would double after that state completes its $3.8 billion deal to lease out its portion of the same highway, Interstate 80/90. (The highway splits just west of Cleveland, and Interstate 80 alone is the toll route to the eastern Ohio line.)
In Ohio, tolls were lowered in recent years to discourage truck drivers who would leave the turnpike for parallel, smaller highways and get involved in serious crashes.
The analysts -- Ned Hill, vice president for economic development at Cleveland State University, and David Ellis, director of policy, planning and programs for the Cleveland-based Center for Community Solutions -- said there's another major wrinkle.
Over the contract's 99-year life, the 51-year-old highway would need to be rebuilt twice, they said. That would cost $771 million and reduce the lease value even more.
Blackwell's proposal calls for a private operator to pay the lease up front in exchange for keeping all tolls for 99 years and maintaining the road. The multibillion-dollar payment would go to a trust fund that would generate yearly interest: $103 million to $242 million under Blackwell's lease estimate or $51 million to $115 million under the economists' estimate.
The interest would be used to help Ohio businesses and public universities develop clean energy sources such as ethanol and to expand broadband high-speed Internet access, Blackwell said.