HOW HE SEES IT Stem cells look like GOP gift to Dems

By DICK POLMAN
PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
The stem-cell issue is a textbook example of the fundamental divide within the Republican Party. Potentially, as the '06 election draws near, this issue is political poison for the GOP, although that assumes the Democrats would know what to do with the gift that has been placed in their perpetually tremulous hands.
The issue itself -- spending taxpayers' money to conduct research on diseases by using stem cells taken from human embryos -- is broadly popular among moderate Republicans, centrist Republicans and probably conservative Republicans whose loved ones suffer from serious illness. Two years ago, a University of Pennsylvania National Annenberg Election Survey reported that 53 percent of Republicans nationwide support stem-cell research. The overall national percentage of Americans favoring stem-cell work is as high as 70 percent.
Religious right wins out
Even Senate Republican leader and presidential hopeful Bill Frist strongly pushed the bill to expand stem-cell research. But, within the GOP base, the religious and social conservatives say thumbs-down -- and they still hold sway at the White House. President Bush and his lieutenants remain dedicated to keeping them happy, especially during the run-up to congressional elections that will require a strong base turnout.
So Bush vetoed this measure and thus sustained the tight restrictions he imposed on federal stem-cell research in 2001.
It's hard to see how the GOP can emerge from this episode politically unscathed. In the wake of Bush's veto, independent and moderate swing voters may well conclude that Bush considers his fealty to the religious right to be more important than the health of millions of Americans.
The Bush veto could also put the political squeeze on conservative senators such as Jim Talent, who voted against the stem-cell research bill. His re-election in Missouri is being threatened this year because swing-voting Missourians appear to be siding with stem cells and science. It's noteworthy that last weekend the national Democrats chose Talent's opponent, Claire McCaskill, to deliver the party's Saturday radio address.
Santorum is vulnerable
Another potentially vulnerable senator is Rick Santorum, who is already trailing Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr. by double digits in the polls and who also voted no on stem-cell research. To survive in November, he'll need at least minimally respectable support out of the populous suburbs -- but that's where stem-cell research is broadly popular, and where Bush-style social conservatism is not.
As Kenneth Davis, a county GOP chairman in the Philadelphia suburbs, told me a couple of years ago, stem-cell research "is something everyone can relate to, because everyone has a story about a loved one's illness." (Casey also broadly opposes using federal money on expanded stem-cell research; on the other hand, his party is far more supportive of the idea than Bush's GOP.)
By all accounts, the Bush veto presents Democrats with an electoral opportunity. Many Republicans recognize this; a Northeastern party official told CNN that the stem-cell issue was a "stinker" for the GOP.
The question is whether the Democrats can manage to invoke the Bush veto and rhetorically contend that the president is "out of the mainstream," that he is "against" improving the health and reducing the suffering of his fellow citizens. Even Bill Frist referred to the stem-cell bill as "preserving life," so what does opposition to the bill imply?
Suffice it to say that Karl Rove, if working for the other team, could craft this one in his sleep.
X Dick Polman is a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.