Middle East demands attention before war spreads

The deaths continue in Lebanon and Israel, with far more civilians having been killed than Israeli soldiers or Hezbollah fighters.
It is past time for the rest of the world to start showing a more active interest in where the battle in southern Lebanon is headed.
There is a very real danger that it is leading to a Middle East war that will expand beyond Israel and Lebanon.
The United States -- which many still refer to as the world's only super power -- has damaged its standing by taking a hands-off position in the early days of the conflict. The U.S. stance that Israel has a right to defend itself is not wrong, per se, but the reality of U.S.-built bombers dropping bombs on Beirut neighborhoods in the name of Israel's self-defense does not play well on the Arab street.
And, while Israel is a historic ally and deserves a high level of support from the United States, the entire Bush policy in the Middle East depends on how average people in the Middle East view the United States.
The Bush policy, in a nutshell, is that democracy works. Give people freedom, give them the vote, and they will see that the U.S. way is the best way. That's a simplistic description, but the policy is so built on presidential soundbites that it merits nothing deeper.
Problem with democracy
Democracy is a marvelous concept, and in its various permutations it offers people the greatest potential for being masters of their own destinies. But, clearly, giving people a vote does not mean they will vote the way the United States wants them to.
Look at Egypt. Look at the Palestinian territories. Look at Lebanon, where Hezbollah, the enemy Israel is battling now, controls about 15 percent of the government through elections.
Clearly, the taking of two Israeli soldiers as hostage by Hezbollah was a painful experience for the besieged nation. But throughout the Cold War, the United States lost soldiers in border skirmishes in Europe and Korea, it had crews of airplanes and ships held hostage for periods of time, but it did not declare such incidents to be causis belli.
Israel saw an opportunity to strike at Hezbollah, and it made the calculated decision to take it.
But the rest of the world, including the United States, must question whether Israel calculated all of the odds.
In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in an assault against the Palestine Liberation Organization. It succeeded in driving the PLO out, but became bogged down in Lebanon for 15 years, during which Hezbollah evolved into a greater threat than the PLO.
Military action cannot transform Lebanon's political and social realities. If an election were held today, the democratic process would result in Hezbollah gaining power and possibly the fall of the U.S.-backed government.
Too big a job
Israel is attempting to unilaterally disarm Hezbollah in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559. But the danger of that is, the closer Israel gets to success, the greater the likelihood of Syria and Iran becoming actively engaged. And there is no telling where that escalation could lead.
The job in South Lebanon is a job for NATO troops, and the United States should be actively engaged in pushing for establishment of a buffer zone free of Hezbollah guerrillas and Israeli troops and policed by NATO. U.N. peacekeepers aren't up to the challenge, and U.S. troops have their hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.