Texas is the wild card in House balance

In the closely contested battle for congressional control, every seat counts. And Texas, unexpectedly, could play a crucial role. That's especially surprising, given that all signs point to the midterm elections confirming the state's current Republican bent.
But the key factor, even more than the votes to be cast in November, could be decisions two courts will make soon in separate cases involving several Texas districts.
In one, there are signs the Republicans may have outsmarted themselves in trying to keep the seat held for 22 years by former Rep. Tom DeLay of Sugar Land.
In the other, it is unclear if GOP strategists will succeed in a bid to extend their gains from the controversial redistricting plan the Supreme Court essentially upheld three weeks ago.
The two cases are unrelated except for this: Both stem from DeLay's successful effort to ensure GOP majorities in the 32-member Texas delegation in the U.S. House that, until 2004, was dominated by the Democrats.
The simpler question is who will be the Republican candidate this November in the Houston area's 22nd District. DeLay resigned his House membership last month after winning the GOP primary for a new term, then sought to vacate his nomination by claiming he had moved to Virginia.
That would have made him ineligible to run and allowed Republican officials to name a successor lacking DeLay's baggage -- he's under indictment for alleged money laundering of campaign funds in 2002 and also faced House ethics charges. But the GOP plan blew up when U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks, a nominee of the first President Bush, said there was no evidence DeLay would be a Virginia resident on Election Day.
A federal appeals court hearing is scheduled July 31. If the Sparks ruling is upheld, DeLay would remain the GOP candidate, and he suggested he'd fight for the seat he had previously resigned.
But some Republicans are skeptical he'd give it his all. And though the district has a GOP majority, Democrats think their candidate, former Rep. Nick Lampson of Beaumont, would, as one put it, "be better off running against a wounded, corrupt DeLay than your garden variety Republican."
Hispanic voters
Meanwhile, another federal court will rule on the Supreme Court directive to revise the redistricting map to add more Hispanic voters to the South Texas district of Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio. Any changes would affect at least one adjoining district.
In all, 14 separate proposals have been submitted to the court, which will hear arguments Aug. 3.
The Republican state attorney general, Greg Abbott, proposed a plan intended to protect the GOP's current 21-11 majority. But it would remove Austin from the district now represented by Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, placing his home in the district of Republican Lamar Smith of San Antonio.
That wouldn't necessarily change the 21-11 Republican advantage in the delegation. But it might lead to Doggett being replaced by a Hispanic Democrat, extending the GOP goal of eliminating as many senior white Democrats as possible.
However, Bonilla, who could be vulnerable to a primary challenge under the Abbott plan, joined Mr. Smith and Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, in a proposal designed to protect all three.
The Democrats, meanwhile, weighed in with a plan that strengthened Doggett's position but might jeopardize Cuellar, who is unpopular with party leaders and only narrowly survived two Democratic primaries against former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio.
At least four outcomes are possible, as are combinations of them:
The status quo could remain, probably the most likely result.
Doggett's seat could go to a Hispanic Democrat, leaving the partisan balance the same but increasing the number of Hispanics from six to seven.
Cuellar could lose his seat to a fellow Hispanic Democrat, leaving the same partisan balance.
Bonilla could lose his seat to a white Republican challenger -- or to a Democrat.
If the latter happened, and Lampson won the DeLay seat, Democrats would cut the GOP Texas margin from 21-11 to 19-13.
That, in turn, would provide Democrats two of the 15 seats they need to regain the House in an election many analysts think could come down to a handful of races.
Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.